长江流域资源与环境 >> 2013, Vol. 22 >> Issue (04): 405-.

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域规划实施结果评估——以《江苏省沿江开发总体规划》为例

郭 垚 |陈 晓   

  1. (1中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所|江苏 南京 210008;
    2中国科学院大学|北京 100029;3湖州市发展规划研究院|浙江 湖州 313000)
  • 出版日期:2013-04-20

OUTCOME EVALUATION OF REGIONAL PLAN IMPLEMENTATION——A CASE STUDY OF “REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF YANGTZERIVERSIDE AREA IN JIANGSU”

GUO Yao1|2| CHEN Xiao3   

  1. (1Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology| Chinese Academy of Sciences| Nanjing 210008| China;
    2University of |Chinese Academy of Sciences| Beijing 100039| China;
    3Huzhou Development Planning and Research Institute| Huzhou 313000| China)
  • Online:2013-04-20

摘要:

规划评估是确保区域规划有效实施的必要环节,实施结果评估是区域规划实施评估中不可回避的重要一环,对区域规划的有效推进无疑具有现实意义,但是相关研究却极为不足。从区域规划的特征对结果评估的影响出发,试图以完成规划战略意图作为实施结果评估标准为切入点,以《江苏省沿江开发总体规划》为例,构建区域规划实施结果评估的指标体系,进行了实证研究。研究发现,规划在引导产业定位与布局、基础设施建设等方面发挥了积极作用,从而提高了区域竞争力、减小了区域内部差异,总体实施结果良好。但在资源集约利用与生态保护方面却作用较弱,较弱的规划协调利益冲突能力以及实施保障机制是影响规划作用发挥的重要因素。最后,分析了结果评估的局限性并指出下一步研究的方向

Abstract:

Plan evaluation has been considered as an indispensable process to ensure effective implementation of a regional plan Outcome evaluation, as an inevitable stage in the process of plan evaluation, has practical meanings in effectively promoting the development of regional planning However relevant research in this area is far less than sufficient This paper started with the evolution of regional planning and their effects on outcome evaluation Then considering conformance based evaluation theory as framework, this paper attempted to claim the degree of mission accomplishment as the evaluation scale Core mission need be analyzed and identified in each evaluation practices Further, goals and objectives should be classified and integrated to indicate the effectiveness of plan And finally each objective would be assigned a weight to calculate the overall achievement In order to test the validity of this evaluation methodology, an empirical case study based on “Regional Development Plan of YangtzeRiverside Area in Jiangsu” was applied In this case study, the author designed a sevenstep evaluations procedure, including plan description, objective identification, background establishment, outcome identification, evaluation and analysis, adjustment and correction, continuing monitoring Based on this procedure, this paper established an outcome evaluation index system, and applied the system on “Regional Development Plan of YangtzeRiverside Area in Jiangsu” The results indicated this area had increased in four aspects Firstly, regional economy had grown up continually, as well as the benefit of industry cluster and economics of scale had been enhanced Foreign investment became the engine of economic growth Secondly, sustainable development of environment resources had been achieved in this area Resources had been used more efficiently, while pollution had been under control Thirdly, infrastructure construction had been well developed and became the solid foundation for industry cluster and development of society and economy Finally, regional differences between south and north side of the Yangtze River were reduced steadily, and the north side presented a higher increase rate on economic growthAfter identifying the implementation outcomes, it is important to prove that positive results were actually caused by the original plan Therefore, in the next stage, this paper used regional differences between north and south side of the Yangtze River to prove the relationship between plan and outcome By comparing relevant factors and Theil index, the author positively concluded that plan was the major reason for the actual outcomes At last, the author summarized the case study and pointed out that “Regional Development Plan of YangtzeRiverside Area in Jiangsu” had positive influenced in directing industry positioning and distribution, as well as infrastructure construction The plan increased regional competition advantages and reduced local differences within the regional areas The outcome of plan implementation was good although limitation had been found in coordinating conflict interests and implementing safeguard plansAt the final, this paper analyzed potential defects in outcome evaluation, suggested that outcome evaluation could not explain how the plan affect the outcome, which means important determinant factors in planning and implementation could not be identified The author advised future studies should pay more attention to evaluating implementation process

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