基于卫星降水的鄱阳湖流域旱涝分析及其可靠性检验

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

:基于热带测雨卫星(TRMM)３B４２降水数据,通过Z 指数方法对鄱阳湖流域１９９８年１月~２０１０年１２月
旱涝的时空分布进行分析,并利用流域内１５个雨量站观测降雨数据同样采用Z 指数方法分析流域旱涝变化,与
TRMM 结果进行对比,检验其精度和可靠性.结果显示:TRMM 降水与地面雨量站观测降雨具有较高的一致性,
能正确反映流域的降水情况;其计算的Z指数在１９９８~２０１０年以０为中心呈锯齿状增大减小交替变化,所反映的
洪涝事件主要发生在４~６月,占全年的６０％左右,而干旱主要发生在９月~翌年１月份,其与鄱阳湖流域降水的
年内分布特征是一致的;同时,基于TRMM 降水反映的流域旱涝等级与降雨量的空间分布基本一致,TRMM 降水
能够用于流域旱涝的空间分布监测.

Abstract:

Abstract:Flood/droughtisoneofthemostinfluentialclimaticdisastersinPoyangLakebasin．Intraditional
flood/droughtmonitoring,precipitationdatausedareusuallyfrom ground meteorologicalobservation
sites．However,duetotheheterogeneityofregionalprecipitationoverspaceandtime,quantityandspatial
distributionsofmeteorologicalstationsfrequentlylimittheoverallaccuracyoftheregionalflood/drought
analysis．AsonemajormeansofspaceＧbasedobservations,inrecentyears,satelliteremotesensinghasbeＧ
comeanincreasinglyimportanttechniqueforregionprecipitationchangemonitoring．Inthispaper,TRMM
(TropicalRainfallMeasuringMission)satellite３B４２precipitationdatainPoyangLakebasin,firstly,were
evaluatedandcomparedthroughthebiasofrainfallamountandoccurrencefrequencyunderdifferentrainＧ
fallintensity,andthenbeusedtoreflectthespatioＧtemporaldistributioncharacteristicsoffloods/droughts
bytheZindexmethodinPoyangLakebasinfromJanuary１９９８toDecember２０１０．TheirreliabilitywasalＧ
sovalidatedbythe１５raingaugestationsinthebasinusingthesamemethod．TheresultsshowedasfolＧ
lows．(１)TheoccurrencefrequencyandrainfallamountcontributionsofdailyTRMMprecipitationunder
differentrainfallintensityhadahighlevelofconsistencywithgroundgaugesobservation．Andatmonthly
scale,thehighcorrelationcoefficientbetweenobservedrainfalldataandTRMMgridprecipitationindicated
thattheTRMMprecipitationcouldcorrectlyreflecttherainfallinPoyangLakebasin．(２)ZindexcalculatＧ
edbyTRMM precipitationshowedanincreaseＧdecreasealternantvariationaround０between１９９８and
２０１０．Theirvariationprocessandtrendswereconsistentwiththeresultsoftworaingaugesdataandthe
correlationcoefficientswere０??８９６and０??９１４,respectively．(３)ThefloodeventsinPoyangLakebasinocＧ
curredmainlyfromApriltoJuneandaccountedforabout６０％,whichwasalsothemainwetseasonofPoyＧ
angLakebasin,andthedroughtoccurredmainlyfromSeptembertoJanuaryofthefollowingyear．And
theirdistributionpatternswereconsistentwiththeannualdistributioncharacteristicsofprecipitation．(４)
ThespatialdistributionofZindexandflood/droughtgradesbasedonTRMMprecipitationwasconsistent
withthedistributionofrainfallinApril,２０１０andNovember,２００７,whichrepresentedthewetanddry
monthrespectively．TRMM precipitationdatacanbeusedtoevaluatetheareaandseverityoffloodor
droughtinPoyangLakebasin．Abstract:Flood/droughtisoneofthemostinfluentialclimaticdisastersinPoyangLakebasin．Intraditional
flood/droughtmonitoring,precipitationdatausedareusuallyfrom ground meteorologicalobservation
sites．However,duetotheheterogeneityofregionalprecipitationoverspaceandtime,quantityandspatial
distributionsofmeteorologicalstationsfrequentlylimittheoverallaccuracyoftheregionalflood/drought
analysis．AsonemajormeansofspaceＧbasedobservations,inrecentyears,satelliteremotesensinghasbeＧ
comeanincreasinglyimportanttechniqueforregionprecipitationchangemonitoring．Inthispaper,TRMM
(TropicalRainfallMeasuringMission)satellite３B４２precipitationdatainPoyangLakebasin,firstly,were
evaluatedandcomparedthroughthebiasofrainfallamountandoccurrencefrequencyunderdifferentrainＧ
fallintensity,andthenbeusedtoreflectthespatioＧtemporaldistributioncharacteristicsoffloods/droughts
bytheZindexmethodinPoyangLakebasinfromJanuary１９９８toDecember２０１０．TheirreliabilitywasalＧ
sovalidatedbythe１５raingaugestationsinthebasinusingthesamemethod．TheresultsshowedasfolＧ
lows．(１)TheoccurrencefrequencyandrainfallamountcontributionsofdailyTRMMprecipitationunder
differentrainfallintensityhadahighlevelofconsistencywithgroundgaugesobservation．Andatmonthly
scale,thehighcorrelationcoefficientbetweenobservedrainfalldataandTRMMgridprecipitationindicated
thattheTRMMprecipitationcouldcorrectlyreflecttherainfallinPoyangLakebasin．(２)ZindexcalculatＧ
edbyTRMM precipitationshowedanincreaseＧdecreasealternantvariationaround０between１９９８and
２０１０．Theirvariationprocessandtrendswereconsistentwiththeresultsoftworaingaugesdataandthe
correlationcoefficientswere０??８９６and０??９１４,respectively．(３)ThefloodeventsinPoyangLakebasinocＧ
curredmainlyfromApriltoJuneandaccountedforabout６０％,whichwasalsothemainwetseasonofPoyＧ
angLakebasin,andthedroughtoccurredmainlyfromSeptembertoJanuaryofthefollowingyear．And
theirdistributionpatternswereconsistentwiththeannualdistributioncharacteristicsofprecipitation．(４)
ThespatialdistributionofZindexandflood/droughtgradesbasedonTRMMprecipitationwasconsistent
withthedistributionofrainfallinApril,２０１０andNovember,２００７,whichrepresentedthewetanddry
monthrespectively．TRMM precipitationdatacanbeusedtoevaluatetheareaandseverityoffloodor
droughtinPoyangLakebasin．

李相虎,张　奇,李云良. 基于卫星降水的鄱阳湖流域旱涝分析及其可靠性检验[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(9): 1188-.

LIXiangＧhu,ZHANGQi,LIYunＧliang. ANALYSISONFLOOD/DROUGHTINPOYANGLAKEBASINBASEDON
SATELLITEPRECIPITATIONANDITSRELIABILITYVALIDATION[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2013, 22(9): 1188-.

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