长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (05): 1073-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202505013

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合肥都市圈地表温度时空变化及其驱动因素分析

戴睿1,闫岩1*,周迎平2,徐倩倩1,何冬燕3,4,唐佳琪5,邓学良1   


  1. (1. 合肥市气象局,安徽 合肥 230041; 2. 安徽省公共气象服务中心,安徽 合肥 230031; 3. 中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室,上海 200092; 4. 安徽省气候中心,安徽 合肥 230031; 5. 北京交通大学电子信息工程学院,北京 100044)
  • 出版日期:2025-05-20 发布日期:2025-05-22

Spatial-temporal Variation of Land Surface Temperature and Driving Factors in Hefei Metropolitan Area#br#

DAI Rui1 ,YAN Yan1 ,ZHOU Ying-ping2 ,XU Qian-qian1 ,HE Dong-yan3,4 ,TANG Jia-qi5 ,DENG Xue-liang1 #br#   


  1. (1. Hefei Meteorological Bureau, Hefei 230041, China;2. Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center, Hefei 230031, China;3. Key Laboratory of Cities Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai, Shanghai 200092, China;4. Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China;5. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)
  • Online:2025-05-20 Published:2025-05-22

摘要: 快速扩张的城市化导致了城市热岛的形成,进而加剧了生态环境问题。厘清城市地表温度(LST)变化特征、探索其主导驱动因子,对于调控城市热环境具有实际意义。以合肥都市圈为例,基于2003~2022年的MOD11A2和MYD11A2地表温度数据,采用统计学、趋势分析和地理空间相关模型获取了研究区LST的时空演变特征,并运用地理探测器模型定量评估各驱动因子对LST影响的程度。结果表明:(1)2003~2022年合肥都市圈年平均地表温度呈波动上升的趋势(0.08 °C/a),白天升温速率(0.11 °C/a)明显高于夜间(0.06 °C/a)。(2)合肥都市圈全天显著增温区域主要分布在中北部及东南角,白天显著增温区在全天显著增温区的基础上向外扩散,然而夜间研究区大部表现为增温不显著。(3)近20 a合肥都市圈地表温度的冷热点集聚发生明显变化。白天热点区向东北方扩散,冷点区在西南角聚集;夜间热点区向南部聚集,冷点区向中部扩散。(4)白天,潜在蒸散发、气温和植被指数是合肥都市圈地表温度的主要影响因子,气温和土地利用类型是多年来引起地表温度变化的主导因子;夜间,植被指数、降水和气温是研究区地表温度的主要影响因子,夜间灯光指数对地表温度的解释力明显增强。研究结果可为城市生态保护协调发展提供科学依据。

Abstract: Rapid expansion of urbanization has led to the formation of urban heat islands, which further exacerbates ecological and environmental problems. Clarifying the variation characteristics of urban surface temperature and exploring their main driving factors are critical for regulating urban thermal environments. Based on the MOD11A2 and MYD11A2 surface temperature products, this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution and the driving factors of the local surface temperature on Hefei metropolitan area from 2003 to 2022. The statistics, trend analysis and geospatial correlation modeling, combined with the Geo-detector model were used. The results showed that: (1) The annual average LST in the study area fluctuated upward from 2003 to 2022 (0.08 °C/year), with daytime warming rates (0.11 °C/year) significantly higher than those at night (0.06 °C/year). (2) The significant warming areas during all-day were mainly distributed in the central-northern and southeastern parts of the area. The daytime zone of significant warming spread outward from the all-day zone, but most of the region showed insignificant warming during the night. (3) Over the past 20 years, the area of the cold-hot spots region changed dramatically. The LST hot spots spread to the northeast while the LST cold spot area clustered to the southwest corner during the day. The LST hot spots clustered to the south while the LST cold spot area spread to the center during the night. (4) The potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, and vegetation index were the major factors affecting the daytime LST in the study area, with air temperature and land use type being the dominant factors causing changes in surface temperature over the years. At night, the vegetation index, precipitation, and air temperature were the major driving factors affecting the nighttime LST, and the interpretability of LST had been significantly enhanced by the nighttime light index. This study provided a scientific basis for the coordinated development of urban ecological protection.

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