长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (05): 1113-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202505016

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

大食物观背景下农业产业链协同测度、动态演进与驱动因素分析

尹春凤1,张利庠1*,徐宣国2   


  1. (1.中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872;2.山东农业大学公共管理学院, 山东 泰安 271018)
  • 出版日期:2025-05-20 发布日期:2025-05-22

Collaborative Measurement, Dynamic Evolution, and Driving Factors of Agricultural Industry Chain Under the Background of the Great Food 

YIN Chun-feng1,ZHANG Li-xiang1, XU Xuan-guo2#br#   


  1. (1. School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872 China; 
    2. School of Public Administration, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018 China)
  • Online:2025-05-20 Published:2025-05-22

摘要: 大食物观对农业产业化发展具有指导意义。利用2011~2021年中国省级面板数据,通过复合系统协调度模型测度农业产业链协同发展水平,进一步通过Kernel估计、Markov链分析和空间自相关分析对农业产业链协同发展的演进趋势、未来发展和集聚方式进行分析,最后利用面板Tobit回归模型对驱动因素进行识别和检验。主要结论如下:(1)研究时段内,农业产业链协同发展水平呈现明显增长的趋势,粮食主产区内的农业产业链协同发展水平较高,河北省农业产业链协同发展水平在研究省域中居于前列;(2)区域间农业产业链协同水平存在差异,两级分化明显,区域内产业链协同发展的差异相对较小,不同区域在保持自身稳定性的同时也存在向较高值协同区演进的趋势;(3)省域间农业产业链协同发展联系紧密,存在明显的空间相关性,呈现H-H型、L-L型居多的分布特征,农业产业链协同发展水平主要以正向聚集为主;(4)经济驱动、资金驱动、创新驱动和物流驱动方面的因素均对农业产业链协同水平产生正向显著影响,但各因素在三大区域发挥的作用存在差异。研究结论为保障大食物观理念的落实和促进农业高质量发展提供现实参考。

Abstract: Using the provincial panel data from 2011~2021, we measured the level of coordinated development of the agricultural industry chain through the composite system coordination model. We further analyzed the evolution trend, future development and agglomeration mode of the coordinated development of the grain industry chain through Kernel estimation and spatial autocorrelation. The conclusions were as follows:(1)During the research period, the level of collaborative development of the grain industry chain showed a significant growth trend. Among them, the level of collaborative development of the grain industry chain in Hebei Province ranked among the top in all provinces; (2)There were differences in the level of collaboration between regions in the grain industry chain, and the phenomenon of two-stage differentiation was more obvious. The difference in the collaborative development of the industry chain within the region was relatively small, and there was a certain degree of regional collaborative evolution trend. While maintaining their own stability, different regions also had a trend towards higher value collaborative areas; (3)The collaborative development of the grain industry chain between provinces was closely related and there existed a clear spatial correlation. The spatial distribution of the collaborative development level of the grain industry chain showed a majority of H-H and L-L distribution characteristics, and a positive aggregation;(4)Overall, economy, capital, and innovation had a positive and significant impact on the synergy level of the agricultural industry chain, but the contribution of individual factor varied in the three major regions. These conclusions provided realistic references for guaranteeing the implementation of the concept of the Big Food Perspective and promoting agricultural development.

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