关键词: 冲突分析, 水资源, FH方法, GMCR模型

Abstract:

Water resources conflicts are generally resolved through negotiation，while conflict analysis is one of useful methods from the viewpoint of strategy.In conflict analysis，players′ alternatives and preferences are taken into consideration，and preference vectors are arranged by the strength，altitude and objective of players.Then，equilibrium can be obtained after stability analysis of reachable states.In this paper，the evolution of conflict analysis，from normal game theory to FH analysis，was introduced，with basic concepts and main factors of the mathematical model described.Besides，the development，application and modeling of conflict analysis all over the world were generalized and the research advancement of the method in China was also concluded.Due to its function in the field of decisionmaking on water resources，it is suggested that analysis module should be improved and the players′ rationality should be put on more emphasis.Moreover，it was proposed that a combination view of conflictcooperation will be accepted by decisionmakers during conflict resolution with FH analysis.〖

Key words: conflict analysis, water resources, FH analysis, GMCR model