关键词: 城市/ 协调发展/ 系统动力学/ 模拟/ 苏州

Abstract:

The urban social economic development possesses characteristics of system,dynamics and complication.Applying system dynamics method to establish models can depict systemic nonlinear structure and dynamic characteristics adequately and predict the trend of economic development with the restriction of environment.Based on the analysis of the structure including economic development and environmental protection in Suzhou,the system dynamics model composed of the economic subsystem and environmental subsystem was established.Three developing modes were designed with the adjustment parameters of ratios of fixed assets and labors in the three industrial sectors,pollutants emitted per 10 thousand Yuan of industrial output value and the proportion of environmental investigation,and the optimum one was the coordinated developing mode of economy and environment.From the comparison among the three modes,two suggestions are submitted for the government of Suzhou: firstly,the structure of industry should be optimized and the tertiary industry must be taken more efforts on it; secondly, the ratio of the investigation on environmental protection should be increased while the control of pollutant emission per unit of industrial output value is necessary. These two aspects should be paid the same importance to achieve the harmony development of economy and environment in Suzhou.

Key words: urban/coordinated development/system dynamics/simulation/Suzhou