Abstract:

Conflicts exist in nearly every field around the world.They appear as soon as benefits dispute emerges from more than two players.Water resources are special natural resource,and the conflicts of water allocation and distribution are undoubted difficult problems in international levels.For that,FH method based on Meta Game theory has been employed widely in water resources conflict management.In this paper,the main procedure of FH method was analyzed in detail and then an improved stability analysis for conflict states was proposed to pursue the conflict equilibrium,in consideration of players' foreseeable ability for state transfer.In the process of stability analysis,any player involved in conflict is assumed to be willing to improve or pursue a better state from the view of his own, which is in line with general rule in society living.If one player has no incentive to improve certain feasible state unilaterally based on his foreseeable ability,the state is a stable and satisfied one for him. Moreover,this state is the very equilibrium point of conflict problem if all players deem it stable.Finally,one case study of Huangbeihe River Basin,in Yichang City,Hubei Province,was carried out.There were three players in the water management strategies conflicts resolution,namely Dongfengqu Irrigation District Management Bureau,Huangbaihe River Basin Management Bureau,and Water Resources Bureau of Yichang City.The simulation results showed that one group of strategies was rather stable,in which Irrigation District Management Bureau increased water allocation,River Basin Management Bureau raised economic benefits and Water Resources Bureau encouraged regional cooperation and intensified administration.The suggested model supplies possible solution to the typical conflict problems.