Abstract:

In the first part of this twopart paper,it has been proved that VIC model is adaptable for the Xitiaoxi catchment,especially for the simulation of discharge during flood seasons.In this part,VIC model is coupled with PRECIS to analyze the flood response to future climate change.Results indicate that the average monthly discharge and maximum monthly discharge are strongly correlated at the Hengtangcun hydrologic station.In other words,the flood could be represented satisfactorily by average monthly discharge.The discharge will increase significantly during flood seasons in the study area in the future (2021~2050),and flood frequency will also increase significantly under future climate scenarios than that during baseline period (1961~1990).The probability of occurrence for big flood under A2 scenario will be greater than that under B2 scenario,a 50year event may become a 27year or 32year event under A2 and B2 scenario in the future respectively.All these suggest that flood response to climate change will be more sensitive, and there will be a great increase in intensity and frequency of extreme floods in the future.This will be a big challenge for the planning and management of water resources,and also for flood control in the future