Abstract:

In order to promoting the building of ecoisland and low carbon development for Chongming Island, the LEAP Model was used for the prediction of Chongming Island's medium and longterm carbon emissions, on the basis of a complete assessment of Chongming Island's energy consumption and GHG emissions in recent years, with application of the bottomup sectorbased GHG inventory methodology. Besides, the LMDI method is applied for quantitative analysis of the contribution ratio of major driving factors influencing future carbon emissions in Chongming Island. The results showed that under baseline scenario, total energy consumption in Chongming island will grow from 101 million tce in 2010 to 533 million tce in 2050, and the growth rate of energy demand for business and service industry is most obvious, followed by household. The total net GHG emission, equals to the sum of emission from energy combustion, agricultural activities and waste disposal, minus carbon sink, also has an increasing trend, and it will grow from 238 million tCO2e to 539 million tCO2e in 2050, among which, the emission from energy combustion contributes most in total GHG emission, and carbon sink due to wetland and woodland can offset only 57% of the total GHG emissions in 2050, compared with 12.8% in 2010. However, with a series of optimized actions under mitigation scenario, including energy structure optimizing, industry structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and carbon sink capacity enhancement, the total energy consumption will reach a peak around the year of 2039. The ratio of GHG emission from energy combustion will decrease significantly, while emission from agricultural activities will play the most important role in total GHG emissions. By 2050, the carbon sink will have the potential to offset the total GHG emissions. The analysis of the contribution ratio of influencing factors to GHG emission demonstrates that, compared with the level of 2010, economy development contribute more in the growth of GHG emission than population growth and the improvement in living standards, however, energy structure optimizing and energy efficiency improvement will have a great contribution for the realization of ‘zerocarbon emission island’ longterm target, with a contribution ratio of 49% and 23%, respectively. Finally, the medium and longterm low carbon development target and priority areas are put forward.