RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (10): 1762-1770.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201510019

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SIMULATION OF LANDSCAPE PATTERN CHANGE OF POYANG LAKE AREA PATITION

LIU Yao-bin, DAI Lu, DONG Yue-ying   

  1. Economics Management School of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
  • Received:2014-11-14 Revised:2015-04-14 Online:2015-10-20

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Abstract: In accordance with the strength of water environment constraint, we divided the Poyang Lake area into core, marginal and peripheral zone. In this paper, we tried to predict urbanization and make simulation pattern of cities around the Poyang Lake in the three buffer zones in 2015. After interpreting the Landsat images of the study area, we built up multiple data fusion database, and then statistically described the present situation of land utilization in the study area. Based on Logistic regression we got land suitability atlas. The use of Markov model generated the state transition probability matrix of land use during 2005 to 2010. Under both the restrictions, let Cellular Automata processed research area natural developmental scene simulation. Based on the 2005-2010 land use pattern, the paper combined the CA, Markov, Logistic model and use this model to achieve the future land use simulation scenarios of Poyang Lake area, then use Landscape Indexes to analyze the change trends of landscape pattern of Poyang Lake area which under the constraints of water environment. The results showed that: (1) The cultivated land and woodland covering almost 82% area of district around Poyang Lake will degrade substantially, while the proportion of urban land will rise sharply on Poyang Lake area, along with its gradually accelerating economic development. (2) The probability of land type distribution has a certain relationship with population urbanization rate, life urbanization rate and economic urbanization rate. (3) From the simulation results, the cultivated land of the core area in Poyang Lake area will be smaller and it will expand the scope of water bodies, in marginal zone the construction land and rural residential area increased, the water bodies range in the peripheral area will be substantially reduced, which is reflected in the pattern of land use change on the landscape manifested as the land landscape fragmentation degree decline according with the order: the marginal area-the peripheral area-the core area, suggesting that the protective effect in Poyang Lake is on the emerging, the entire land use pattern orientation is more reasonable.

Key words: Poyang Lake area, Land transition, landscape pattern, cellular automata, Markov, Logistic Regression

CLC Number: 

  • U412.1
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