RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (02): 342-349.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201602021

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RESEARCH ON SEQUENCE RECONSTRUCTION AND CHARACTERISTICS DIAGNOSIS OF TYPHOON STORM SURGES AFFECTING JIANGSU AND ZHEJIANG, AD1368-1911

WANG Hong-bo   

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2015-05-19 Revised:2015-09-13 Online:2016-02-20
  • Supported by:
    the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41230634 and 41330748)

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Abstract: Storm surge wasthe most deadly natural disasters to low coastal areas. According to historical archives of Ming Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China, supplemented with contemporary extraction, 3789 notes which recorded tide disasters occurred in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 1368 to 1911 were collected. Using the direct and indirect evidences of storm surges, 2119 notes were sorted out. A method to reconstruct the frequency of storm surges was also established according to the time of records and adjacent relationship. Using this method and basing on these historical notes, in this research 787 storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 1368 to 1911 were reconstructed, and the temporal distribution curve of the storm surges was analyzed. The result showed that: During the year of 1460-1480, 1570-1595, 1715-1745, 1785-181 and 1880-1890 storm surges were more frequent than average. During the year of 1390-1410, 1445-1465, 1480-1510, 1545-1570, 1600-1630, 1680-1715 and 179-1825 storm surges were less frequent than average.Wavelet analysis showed that the sequence of storm surges has the main period of 45 years, 25 years and 14 years. The 45 years wasthe most notable period, which decided the features of storm surges in the long term. Moving t-test demonstratedthat in the year of 1402, 1444, 1477, 1566, 1624, 1634, 1711, 1799, 1846, 1856, 1875 and 1880, storm surge may experience climatic jump.Further analysis showed that in the year of 1402, 1457, 1566, 1624, 1652, 1711, 1846 and 1880, storm surge tended to be more active.In the year of 1444, 1477, 1543, 1634, 1799 and 1856, storm surge tended to be quiet. Comparison between storm surges sequence and annual temperature departure showed that the number of storm surge was significantly correlated to temperature but the response of storm surges was hysteretic. This may indicated that in the context of global warming,the threat of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang wouldrise.The distribution of storm surges can be divided into four regions, namely North Jiangsu, Yangtze River Delta, Hangzhou Bay and East Zhejiang. Most storm surges concentrated inYangtze River Delta and Hangzhou Bay, which was less in North Jiangsu and East Zhejiang. Influence scope of storm surge in North Jiangsu was quite vast, which only concentrated in seashore when it occurred in East Zhejiang. Storm surge can influence Liuhe along the Yangtze River and influence Taoyuan along the Huai River (the Old Yellow River).

Key words: Ming and Qing dynasties, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, sequence of storm surges, characteristics analysis

CLC Number: 

  • P444
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