RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (06): 937-944.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201706016

Previous Articles     Next Articles

SIMULATION AND PROJECTION OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN HUBEI PROVINCE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

DENG Ting1, WANG Run1,2, JIANG Tong3, HUANG Jin-long4,5, FANG Xiao1, LIU Run1   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China;
    2. Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Development and Environmental Response, Wuhan 430062, China;
    3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    4. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2016-10-17 Revised:2017-01-12 Online:2017-06-20
  • Supported by:
    CHUTIAN Scholarshop Program

PDF (PC)

4

Abstract: Based on the comparative analysis between the simulation data from the high-resolution regional climate model (CCLM) and the CN05.1 data based on the observation in the reference period (1961–2005), we conducted projections on future climate change under the scenario of RCP4.5 at both annual and seasonal scales for the Hubei Province. The results showed:(1)CCLM presented a satisfactory simulation performance on the changing trend of temperature and its spatial distribution pattern, but was not matched very well with the CN05.1 observation precipitation data. (2)Under the RCP4.5, from 2006 to 2050, T, Tmin and Tmax in Hubei Province show a rising trend. The temperature is projected to be rising in all four seasons, while the winter has the fastest increase and the greatest contribution to the rise of annual T, Tmin as well as Tmax. (3)Under the RCP4.5, in the period of 2006–2050, T, Tmin and Tmax will increase in the whole region compared to the reference period. The region with the high increase of temperature is located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In spring, the regions with high increase of temperature are located in northwestern mountain area. In summer, the increase of T, Tmin and Tmax in the middle plain region is higher than other regions. In fall, the increase of T and Tmax in southwestern mountain region is higher than that in other regions. The regions with high increase of Tmin are located in the northern part of Hubei section of Han River. In winter, the increase of T in hilly regions of southeastern Hubei is higher than that in other regions, the same for the Tmin in north part of north section of Han River and Tmax in southwestern mountain region.

Key words: climate model, CCLM, RCP4.5, simulation and projection, Hubei Province

CLC Number: 

  • P463
[1] 姜 彤, 李修仓, 巢清尘, 等. 《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》的主要结论和新认知[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(3):157-166.[JIANG T, LI X C, CHAO Q C, et al. Highlights and understanding of climate change 2014:impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2014, 10(3):157-166.]
[2] LI C B, QI J G, YANG L S, et al. Regional vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change-a case study in the Tao River Basin in Northwestern China[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2014, 9(12):125003.
[3] IPCC. Climate Change 2013:The physical science basis. Contribution of working groupⅠto the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press, 2013:89.
[4] 刘鸿波, 张大林, 王 斌. 区域气候模拟研究及其应用进展[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2006, 11(5):649-668.[LIU H B, ZHANG D L, WANG B. Recent advances in regional climate modeling and applications[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2006, 11(5):649-668.]
[5] 钟 军, 苏布达, 翟建青, 等. 中国日降水的分布特征和未来变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(2):89-95.[ZHONG J, SU B D, ZHAI J Q, et al. Distribution characteristics and future trends of daily precipitation in China[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(2):89-95.]
[6] 陶 辉, 黄金龙, 翟建青, 等. 长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(4):246-251.[TAO H, HUANG J L, ZHAI J Q, et al. Simulation and projection of climate changes under the RCP4.5 scenario in the Yangtze River Basin based on CCLM[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(4):246-251.]
[7] 高 超, 张正涛, 陈 实, 等. RCP4.5情景下淮河流域气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(3):467-477.[GAO C, ZHANG Z T, CHEN S, et al. The high-resolution simulation of climate change model under RCP4.5 scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin[J]. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(3):467-477.]
[8] FISCHER T, MENZ C, SU B D, et al. Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(14):2988-3001.
[9] 黄金龙, 陶 辉, 苏布达, 等. 塔里木河流域极端气候事件模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2014, 37(3):490-498.[HUANG J L, TAO H, SU B D, et al. Simulation of climate extreme events in the Tarim River Basin and projection under the RCP4.5 scenario[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2014, 37(3):490-498.]
[10] 朱娴韵, 苏布达, 黄金龙, 等. 云南气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP4.5情景预估[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(3):476-481.[ZHU X Y, SU B D, HUANG J L, et al. Simulation of climatic change in Yunnan Province and RCP4.5 scenario projected trend by CCLM[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2015, 24(3):476-481.]
[11] 潘家华, 赵行姝, 陈正洪, 等. 湖北省应对气候变化的方案分析与政策含义[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(5):309-314.[PAN J H, ZHAO X S, CHEN Z H, et al. Provincial climate change program:Hubei case study and its policy implications[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2008, 4(5):309-314.]
[12] 许自成, 黎妍妍, 毕庆文, 等. 湖北烟区烤烟气候适生性评价及与国外烟区的相似性分析[J]. 生态学报, 2008, 28(8):3832-3838.[XU Z C, LI Y Y, BI Q W, et al. Evaluation on climatic feasibility of tobacco-growing areas in Hubei and its similarity to that of foreign tobacco-growing area[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008, 28(8):3832-3838.]
[13] 李晓冬, 杜 耘, 吴胜军, 等. 湖北作物气候生产力演变及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 农业系统科学与综合研究, 2009, 25(3):294-298.[LI X D, DU Y, WU S J, et al. Evolvement and effects of climate-productivity on climate change in Hubei Province[J]. System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture, 2009, 25(3):294-298.]
[14] 易灵伟, 杨爱萍, 刘文英, 等. 湖北中稻气候适宜度指标构建及其对产量影响的定量评估与应用[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015, 31(23):109-115.[YI L W, YANG A P, LIU W Y, et al. Index construction of climatic suitability on middle-season rice in Hubei Province and quantitative evaluation and application of its effect on yield[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2015, 31(23):109-115.]
[15] 冯 明, 纪昌明, 王丽萍, 等. 气候变化及其对湖北长江水文水资源的影响[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2006, 39(1):1-5, 25.[FENG M, JI C M, WANG L P, et al. Study on impact of climatic change on hydrology and water resources of Yangtze River reaches in Hubei Province[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2006, 39(1):1-5, 25.]
[16] 王绍武, 罗 勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 新一代温室气体排放情景[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(4):305-307.[WANG S W, LUO Y, ZHAO Z C, et al. New generation of scenarios of greenhouse gas emission[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2012, 8(4):305-307.]
[17] 吴 佳, 高学杰. 一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J]. 地球物理学报, 2013, 56(4):1102-1111.[WU J, GAO X J. A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2013, 56(4):1102-1111.]
[18] 汪高明. 湖北省近47年气温和降水气候特征分析[D]. 兰州:兰州大学硕士学位论文, 2009.[WANG G M. Analysis on climatic characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 47 years[D]. Lanzhou:Master Dissertation of Lanzhou University, 2009.]
[1] PAN Cao, ZHOU Chi, MIAO Teng, LIU LinFeng, GAO Jian, QIAO YiYing, LI Zhu, ZHANG JiaMin, WANG HuiJun, XU DeXiong. Macrozoobenthic Community Structure and Water Quality Bioassessment of Four Rivers in Western Hubei Province, Yangtze River Basin [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2018, 27(11): 2529-2539.
[2] LIU Feng-xia, WANG Yan-jun, ZHAO Jing, CHEN Xue, JIANG Tong. VARIATIONS OF THE EXTERME PRECIPITATION UNDER THE GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5℃ AND 2.0℃ IN THE MID-LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(05): 778-788.
[3] AO Rong-jun, JIANG Liang, Zhang Tao, LIU Qiao-yu. SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF IMMIGRANTS AT COUNTY LEVEL AND ITS DETERMINING MECHANISM IN HUBEI PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(11): 1672-1678.
[4] JIANG Song-ying, LIU Ying, WAN Jing. EVOLUTION OF TEMPORAL-SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN HUBEI——FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF FACTOC DECOMPOSITION OF CULTIVATED LAND USE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(09): 1339-1346.
[5] TIAN Ling-ling, LUO Jing, DONG Ying, LIU He-tao, ZENG Ju-xin. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DYNAMIC RESEARCH OF THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT AND ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF HUBEI PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(02): 316-325.
[6] MA Cai-xue, ZHAO Li-li, KE Xin-li. TEMPORAL SPATIAL VARIATION OF THE PRESSURE OF CROPLAND NON-AGRICULTURALIZATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(01): 71-78.
[7] SHI Yuan-yuan, LI Ren-dong, XU Xing-jian, QIU Juan, LIU Ke-qun, CHANG Bian-rong, YI Feng-jia. ANALYSES ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND SUCCESSION OF ONCOMELANIA SNAILS IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE 1980 [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2015, 24(10): 1744-1750.
[8] ZHAO Lin, YU Jia-shuo, BO Yan, YANG Jiao, LI Han-qing. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF DROUGHT IN HUBEI PROVINCE DURING 1961-2012 BASED ON SPEI [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2015, 24(07): 1230-1237.
[9] GONG Sheng-sheng, CHEN Dan-yang, ZHANG Tao. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION PATTERN CHANGES AND ITS REASONS OF HUBEI PROVINCE FROM 1982 TO 2010 [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2015, 24(05): 728-734.
[10] SONG Min, Zhang-An-Lu. ASSESSING THE POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES OF AGRICULTURAL LAND IN HUBEI PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2009, 18(4): 314-.
[11] GU Sheng, LI Siyue,ZHANG Quanfa. PATIALTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN THE DU RIVER BASIN [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2009, 18(1): 41-.
[12] HU Xianhui,ZHANG Xia,YANG Gangqiao. ANALYSIS ON THE CHANGE OF LAND USE STRUTURE AND ITS DRIVING FORCE IN HUBEI PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2008, 17(1): 43-43.
[13] SUN Fangdi,PANG Xiaoping, NIU Jiqiang,. EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE LAND USE BASED ON FUZZY SYNTHETIC JUDGEMENT--A CASE STUDY OF HUBEI PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(Sup1): 32-36.
[14] Liu Li-Juan, Zan Guo-Sheng, Ge Jian-Ping, Bi Xiao-Li, Zhou Rui. APPLICATION OF MTCLIM IN CLIMATE MODELING FOR THE UP-REACHES OF MINJIANG RIVER [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2005, 14(2): 248-253.
[15] GE Ji-wen,CAI Qing-hua,HU Hong-xing,LIU Jian-kang,CAO Guo-bin,LIU Sheng-xiang. SPECIES DIVERSITY AND POPULATION SIZE OF RARE,ENDANGERED AND NATIONAL KEY PROTECTED WATERFOWLS IN HUBEI PROVINCE, CHINA [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2005, 14(1): 50-54.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] XU Feng, QI Shihua, GAO Yuan, XING Xinli. VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SOILS OF REPRESENTATIVE SPOT IN MIANYANG CITY[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2009, 18(2): 192 .
[2] TAO Jian-ping,LEI Hai-zhang. INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRUCTION OF AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE PLAIN OF THE MIDDLE REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2004, 13(6): 621 -625 .
[3] ZHENG Ming-mei,LI Man-chun,MAO Liang,LI Shao-guang. THE SPATIAL MODEL FOR COUNTYSCOPE POPULATION MIGRATION AIDED BY GIS——A CASE STUDY IN LIN′AN COUNTY, ZHEJIANG PROVINCE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(3): 281 -286 .
[4] WANG Hongli, LIU Jian| KUANG Xueyuan. COMPARISON OF FOUR REANALYSIS PRECIPITATION DATASETS AND OBSERVATION OVER THE MIDDLELOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2008, 17(5): 703 .
[5] WANG Yun-qi,WANG Yu-jie,ZHU Jin-zhao. ANTIERODIBILITY ANALYSIS IN FOREST SOIL OF TYPICAL FORESTS IN JINYUN MOUNTAIN IN CHONGQING CITY[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2005, 14(6): 775 -780 .
[6] HU Da-wei, BIAN Xin-min, XU Quan. DISTRIBUTION AND EVALUATION OF SOIL HEAVY METALS BASED ON ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(4): 475 -479 .
[7] ZHANG Jie,ZHANG Zhibin,Sun Xinxin. MAIN ENVIRONMENT PROBLEMS IN EXPLOITATION OF MINERAL RESOURCES IN YUNNAN PROVINCE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(Sup1): 61 -65 .
[8] WANG Li-ao, HUANG Chuan, ZHAN Yan-hui, YUAN Hui. FLOODING AND SUBSEQUENT AIRDRYING ON ADSORPTION,DESORPTION AND RELEASE OF PHOSPHORUS OF SOIL IN DRAWDOWN AREAS IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(5): 593 -597 .
[9] ,ZOU Xiaobing,ZENG Ting,TRINA MACKIE,XIAO Shangyou,XIA Zhining,,|. CHARACTERISTICS OF PHYTOPLANKTON AND WATER POLLUTION IN LOWER REACHES OF JIALING RIVER IN SPRING[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2008, 17(4): 612 .
[10] CHANG Qingshan,MA Xiangqing,WANG Zhiyong. POLLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF HEAVY METALSAND THEIR POLLUTION EVALUTION IN THE HEAVY METAL MINING AREAS IN SOUTH CHINA[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2007, 16(3): 395 .
Copyright © RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, All Rights Reserved.
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd