全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201705016

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of a high-resolution regional climate model (COSMO model in Climate Mode, CCLM) simulated for the period 1961-2100 and the 90 meteorological stations observed during 1961-2005 over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, four typical extreme precipitation indices, i.e. annual precipitation, intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation, were calculated separately. The spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ were analyzed in detail. The results showed that:(1) In the 1.5℃ warming period, annual precipitation in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin will decrease by 5%, but intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation will increase by 7%, 33% and 4%, respectively, relative to the reference period (1986-2005). The probability density curves showed that under the global warming of 1.5℃, the mean value of annual precipitation will decrease, but intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation will increase, and the variances of extreme precipitation will increase, relative to the reference period. Compared with extreme precipitation in the reference period, the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, intensive precipitation, and heavy rain days show an increasing trend in the southern part of the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and a decreasing trend in the northern part, however, contribution ratio of intensive precipitation has the opposite result in the 1.5℃ warming period. (2) In the 2.0℃ warming period, annual precipitation will decrease by 3%, but intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation will increase by 15%, 46% and 15%, respectively, relative to the reference period. The probability density curves showed that under the global warming of 2.0℃, The mean value and variance of annual precipitation will decrease and increase respectively, but intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation will increase significantly, relative to the reference period. The region of annual precipitation reduction is located in the north of the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, but intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation show that extreme precipitation will increase in most areas. (3)With a global warming of 1.5℃ to 2.0℃, annual precipitation, intensive precipitation, heavy rain days, and contribution ratio of intensive precipitation will increase by 3%, 7%, 10% and 11%, respectively, relative to the reference period. The mean values and variances of extreme precipitation are projected to increase with the rising of temperature, by analyzing the probability density curves. The area and scope of extreme precipitation with increasing trend in a 2.0℃ warming will expand to larger than that of the extreme precipitation with same reference period in a 1.5℃ warming. Aforementioned findings revealed that compared to the extreme precipitation in a 2.0℃ warming, the temperature will be controlled strenuously at 1.5℃ warming that is of great significance to reduce the adverse effects of extreme precipitation.

Key words: global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, extreme precipitation, spatiotemporal variations, CCLM, the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin

CLC Number:

P467

LIU Feng-xia, WANG Yan-jun, ZHAO Jing, CHEN Xue, JIANG Tong. VARIATIONS OF THE EXTERME PRECIPITATION UNDER THE GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5℃ AND 2.0℃ IN THE MID-LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN[J].RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(05): 778-788.

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VARIATIONS OF THE EXTERME PRECIPITATION UNDER THE GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5℃ AND 2.0℃ IN THE MID-LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN

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