RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (5): 1064-1074.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202005002

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Evaluation of China’s Land Use System Health Based on System Dynamics

JIN Yu-hong 1, WANG Hai-jun 1, 2, JIA Ke-jing 3, ZHANG Bin 1, XU Shan 4   

  1. (1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China; 3. China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China; 4. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)
  • Online:2020-05-20 Published:2020-07-13

Abstract: Abstract:By simulating the state of China’s land use system, we explore the scenarios that can achieve healthy development of land use system. It provides a reference path for China to basically realize socialist modernization in 2035 and promote the sustainable development goal. The research uses the system dynamics model to construct the land use system. The model adjusts the parameters of GDP growth rate, population birth rate, and land consolidation investment respectively to represent the state’s policy implementation on economic development, population control, and land consolidation, and a total of 18 scenarios are simulated. With the function of the system dynamics software Vensim PLE, the adjustment mechanism of the policy control variable parameters is established. Under different land use conditions, policy strength can be adjusted accordingly to optimize and enhance the effectiveness of policy implementation. Based on the simulation results of multiple scenarios, according to the national development strategy and the international economic development situation, the research sets the minimum standards for economic development, food security and ecological security that China needs to meet in 2035 to screen all simulation scenarios and eliminate non-conformities. Finally, 6 scenarios are retained. The “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) model is used to construct a land use system health evaluation system to evaluate the retained scenarios and select a scenario that meets the national development needs and has a high level of health. The result shows that the second scenario land use system has the best health level and meets the needs of national development. The optimal policy scenario is as follows: The economy will maintain a medium-speed development, by 2035 the GDP growth rate will stabilize at 4%, and the GDP will reach about 200 thousand billion. The population will maintain a medium-speed growth, and it will stabilize at about 1.485 billion in 2035. The intensity of land consolidation will increase, and it will increase to 60-100 billion yuan per year.

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