RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (6): 1381-1392.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202206018
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HE Jin-ping, LI Shuang-shuang, DUAN Ke-qin, YAN Jun-ping
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Abstract: Existing observational evidence has revealed the characteristics of low probability and high risk in event-based extreme precipitation (EEP), which means that the occurrence of an EEP is uncertain. We identified the pattern of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, i.e. early, after, balance-phase, and 1-day EEP. Based on the high-resolution (0.5°×0.5°) gridded daily precipitation dataset (V2.0) in 1961-2019 obtained from Chinese Meteorological Administration, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin. Meanwhile, the response of EEP to ENSO (El Nio-Southern Oscillation) events during recent 59 years was analyzed by using correlation analysis. The results are as follows: (1) the early EEP in the Yangtze River Basin showed increasing and then decreasing trends, while the EEP in the after and balance-phase experienced a stable fluctuation over the past 59 years, and 1-day EEP kept growing. (2) Spatially, the pattern of early, after EEP increased from northwest to southeast across the Yangtze River Basin, and 1-day EEP shows the ‘center-periphery’ structure, which has a higher frequency in middle areas and lower in periphery areas. For the balance-phase EEP, the high-value areas are distributed in the Jinsha River and Poyang Lake Basin. (3) The EEP in the Yangtze River Basin and its subregions is positively correlated with El Nino, and the proportion is 79.2%. That is to say, while the sea surface temperature of Nino 1+2 or Nino 3.4 is abnormally high in the preceding winter, the volume of extreme precipitation for the four types in the Yangtze River basin will be increased. Moreover, EEP in the Yangtze River Basin and its subregions show a more positive correlation with Nino 1+2 than Nino 3.4. (4) For the flood induced by EEP over Yangtze River Basin in 1998, the dominant type is the early EEP. Specifically, the early EEP between July 20th to 26th was the core cause of the 1998 summer flood over Yangtze River Basin. This study can provide a reference to understand the lasting extreme precipitation of the monsoon region in China.
HE Jin-ping, LI Shuang-shuang, DUAN Ke-qin, YAN Jun-ping. Spatiotemporal Variability of Event-Based Extreme Precipitation over Yangtze River Basin During 1961-2019[J].RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2022, 31(6): 1381-1392.
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URL: https://yangtzebasin.whlib.ac.cn/EN/10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202206018
https://yangtzebasin.whlib.ac.cn/EN/Y2022/V31/I6/1381
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