RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (3): 638-652.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202303017

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Spatio-temporal Process of Population Shrinkage in Rural China Over the Past 70 a And Its Effect on Water and Land Resources

DONG Chao-yang, XUE Dong-qian, MA Bei-bei, SONG Yong-yong   

  1. (School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China)
  • Online:2023-03-20 Published:2023-04-19

Abstract: Rural population shrinkage is an inevitable process of human social development, and is a key issue in alleviating the rural man-land relationship, as well as achieving high-quality development of rural territorial systems. By defining the concept and identification method of rural population shrinkage, the paper analyze the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of China's rural population shrinkage from 1950 to 2020 and its spatial effects on the utilization of water and soil resources by using a series of statistical and spatial analysis methods, taking 31 provinces as spatial units and based on two calibers of permanent residence and registered residence. It is found as follows. (1) At the national scale, rural permanent population and registered population shrinkage enter the full-blown period in 1996 and 2011, respectively, with the former entering the stable period of the full-blown period in 2011. (2) At the provincial scale, the evolution of rural permanent population shrinkage present a expansion from the "along the border-along the Yangtze river-along the coast" areas to the whole region, while the shrinkage evolution of rural registered population show an expansion path from north to south. (3) The grade of rural permanent and registered population shrinkage in provinces gradually change from mainly mild to mainly moderate, and the elevated evolution all present an extension from the eastern coast to the central and western inland. (4) From 2010 to 2020, there are differences in the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of the shrinking of the rural permanent population and registered population on the utilization of water and land resources in provinces. Among them, the change of rural per capita farmland is most strongly influenced by the rural permanent population shrinkage and have the most significant spatial heterogeneity. (5) In the spatial effects on the utilization of water and land resources, the inhibition of the growth of rural domestic water and the promotion of the decline of agricultural water by the rural permanent population shrinkage in provinces exist a spatial and temporal lag, and the significant effect areas are southern China and northern China respectively. The shrinkage of rural permanent population and registered population has led to the growth of rural per capita construction land, with significant effects concentrated in the northwest China and southwest China respectively.


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