Abstract: Understanding of carbon effects and driving factors of the expansion and evolution of urban construction lands, can provide important reference for China to achieve the goals of the carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and territorial spatial planning. However, due to the limitations of statistical data, it is often difficult to separate the carbon effects of urban construction land expansion. By employing an inversion model, combined with the spatial Dobbin panel model, this paper comprehensively studied the ecological and anthropogenic carbon effects of urban construction land expansion, and its spatial agglomeration characteristics and the corresponding driving factors in China under the new normal. The results showed that: (1)The expansion rate of urban construction land in China’s provincial regions showed different trends, and was generally developing towards an increased balance among regions.(2)The losses of ecological carbon storage caused by the expansion of urban construction lands were generally increasing, and the ecological carbon densities of the occupied lands were also rising. However, the total amount and intensities of anthropogenic carbon emissions borne by the new urban construction lands presented a decreasing trend. Both ecological and anthropogenic carbon effects of urban construction land expansion had obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics. The former fluctuated strongly, while the latter was relatively stable and presented in the shape of a block.(3)According to results of the spatial Durbin panel model,technological progress and increased local foreign investment were conducive to reducing the carbon effect of newly expanded urban construction land.Population density, regional affluence, and industrial structure were all positively influencing factors.The spatial spillover effect of population density was the strongest, while the direct effect of regional prosperity was the strongest.The direct effect of opening up was negative, while its spatial spillover effect was positive.(4) It was suggested to avoid the occupation of land with high carbon storage, to use the energy conservation and environmental protection technologies of high-quality foreign enterprises, to pay attention to green and low-carbon technology research and development and to make good use of space spillover effects, in order to form a more green and low-carbon pattern of urban construction land expansion.