Promoting sustainable economic and social development is a key concept in advocating the Chinese path to modernization, realizing the harmonious coexistence between human and nature, and implementing a new development concept. This paper constructed a sustainable development capacity evaluation index system consisting of 5 primary indicators of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, 17 secondary indicators of SDGs such as poverty eradication, hunger eradication, and 63 tertiary indicators. A projection tracing model based on the Sparrow algorithm and a fuzzy logic model were established to evaluate the dimensional development level and the comprehensive development level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2020 in order to explore its spatial correlation characteristics of sustainable development. The study showed that: (1) From the dimensional evaluation results, sustainable development in the Yangtze River Economic Zone was not equivalent. The level of innovation, green, sharing, coordination and open development increased by 26.51%, 30.37%, 18.6%, 17.86% and 3.00%, respectively. (2) From the comprehensive evaluation results, different provinces and cities could be divided into three echelons according to the average level of sustainable development capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: 60-80 were in the first tier, including Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; 40-60 were as the second, including Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing and Sichuan; 20-40 were the third, including Yunnan and Guizhou provinces. (3) In terms of the evolution of the spatial correlation characteristics, the sustainable development capability had spatial dependencies and linkages, but the spatial correlations were unstable with a large fluctuation. Specifically, the number of high-high agglomerations decreased, which were concentrated in the downstream region of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang. The number of low-high agglomerations were in a dynamic change, which were distributed in the midstream region of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi etc. The number of low-low agglomerations remained relatively stable, which were distributed in the upstream region of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan etc.

The traffic network of metropolitan areas is an important cornerstone for building a secure and resilient regional development pattern. Based on the network resilience assessment framework, taking the Chengdu, Wuhan and Nanjing metropolitan areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as research cases, this study measured the resilience of the typical urban road networks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under normal and emergency attack scenarios. The results show: (1)Under normal scenarios, the aggregation, transmission, and hierarchical differentiation of the traffic network resilience in the three metropolitan areas are significant, and the spatial form of the network differs considerably. (2)Under emergency scenarios, the dynamic resilience of the three metropolitan areas varies significantly under random attacks and two types of intentional attacks. Each area has its own advantages. Chengdu Metropolitan Area has the best overall performance and obvious advantages against attacks based on betweenness centrality. Nanjing Metropolitan Area has the second-best overall performance and obvious advantages against attacks based on degree centrality. Wuhan Metropolitan Area has the weakest overall performance and only exhibits obvious advantages against random attacks. (3)Under emergency scenarios, there is a certain antagonistic effect between the robustness and fragility of the traffic network in metropolitan areas. Robustness is stronger than fragility under random attacks, while fragility is stronger than robustness under intentional attacks, and attacks based on betweenness centrality are more likely to cause structural damage to the network. (4) This work analyzed the mechanism of network resilience differentiation from the perspective of network topology structure, and proposed targeted strategies to improve the resilience of urban agglomeration highway networks.

Improving urban land use efficiency (ULUE) is crucial for achieving the optimal allocation of resources and promoting sustainable development. In this study, a super-efficient SBM-Undesirable model was established, based on the unexpected outputs such as carbon emission to assess the urban land use efficiency of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2019. The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics, efficiency evolution and the decoupling relationship with economic development were explored. The results showed that：(1) Overall, the average ULUE in the Yangtze River Delta region was 0.71, indicating a low efficiency level. The ULUE showed a temporal pattern of increasing, then decreasing and finally increasing. The spatial deviations in ULUE demonstrated an increase first, followed by a decrease. (2) The spatial distribution of ULUE varied markedly, characterized by the lowest values in the center, and higher in the west, and lower in the east. Low degree of local agglomeration was also found. (3) Strategies to improve land use efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta region were mainly facilitated by a combination of catch-up efficiency (EC) and technological progress (TC). (4) From 2010 to 2019, the urban land use efficiency and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta cities were dominated by a weak decoupling state, and the decoupling state was relatively satisfactory.

Coordinated development of urban and rural areas is the key to regulating the major social contradictions in the new era and serves as an important symbol of Chinese-style modernization. The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River is an important support of Yangtze River Economic Belt and an important growth pole of national high-quality development. Promoting the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in the middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration is one of the important ways to improve the new development pattern of urban and rural areas. Based on the evaluation index system of coordinated urban-rural development, various quantitative analysis methods were used to reveal the characteristics of urban-rural development in the middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration and to clarify the obstructive factors that restrict high-quality urban-rural development. The results showed that: (1) The urban-rural function index of the middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration showed an overall increasing trend, the regional differences of rural function continued to narrow down, and the regional differences of urban function expanded; Spatially, the rural function index showed a “high in the west and low in the east” distribution, while the high and low values of urban function index were scattered, and the spatial pattern was developing in a balanced direction. (2) During the study period, the overall trend of urban-rural functional coupling coordination was increasing, and the urban-rural development was becoming an increasing coordination; In space, the distribution pattern showed the characteristics of “high in the west and low in the east”, but the regional differences of urban-rural coupling coordination were small and relatively stable. (3) Enhancing rural revitalization and new urbanization should solve the problems of agricultural production and culture education as a priority, leading towards a modernizing agriculture and rural areas, and the innovative urban development. Finally, based on the coordination degree of urban-rural coupling and the diagnosis of obstacle factors, further countermeasures were proposed to optimize the urban-rural integration development in the middle Yangtze River urban agglomeration.

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is China’s “golden economic belt”， and of great significance to explore the coordination between green development and digital economy for the realization of “Chinese-style modernization”. Taking 11 provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as research objectives, this paper constructed the coupling coordination index system between green development and digital economy. By a combination of the spatial autocorrelation model and the obstacle degree model,this paper evaluated the development status, the evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination and the main obstruction factors that may restrict the coupling coordination degree, from the perspectives of geography and time-interspace. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) The level of green development and digital economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt showed an upward trend. The coupling and coordination degree was also increasing year by year. However, the overall coupling and coordination degree is not high in terms of the sufficient development in time and the balanced development in space. (2) The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the coupling coordination degree  demonstrated significant positive spatial correlation characteristics. An obvious spatial correlation characteristics was also indicated in the adjacent provinces. (3) The obstruction factors of the rule layer that restricted the coupling coordination degree of green development and digital economy were:  economic development > digital economy development > social service > ecological environment, in an order from high to low. There are mainly 9 obstruction factors in the top 7 of element layer, with heterogeneity among different provinces and cities. Based on these findings, policy suggestions were put forward in order to promote the positive interaction between green development and digital economy for the achievement of “Chinese-style modernization”.

Taking Wuhan Urban Agglomeration as an example, this paper analyzed the influence of interregional flow of factors on regional land green production efficiency. The spatial network of multi-factor flow, economic and population factor flows in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration was constructed by taking counties as units. The multi-factor flow characteristics among counties were summarized. The land green production efficiency of each county was measured, and the spatial error model was used to verify the influence of factor flow on the land green production efficiency. On this basis, the geographical weighted regression model was further used to analyze the spatial differentiation of this influence. The results were as follows: (1) the factor flow network of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration presented a typical “core-edge” feature in general. A relatively clustered and independently developed subgroup area of Tianmen-Xiantao-Qianjiang had been initially formed. (2) The flow production space was still in its initial stage, which was in good agreements with the traditional field space. The flow of factors still depended on geographical distances. (3) The spatial pattern of land green production efficiency level in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration was not completely consistent with the centrality pattern of factor flow network, which indicated that the influence of factor flow on land green production efficiency was different for different regions. (4) The degree of information centrality had significant positive effects on land green production efficiency, the degree of economic centrality had negative effects on land green production efficiency, while the effects of population centrality were not obvious. (5) The GWR model verified the regional deviations of the influence of multiple factor flow on the green production efficiency. The following conclusions were reached: (1) Continue to improve the construction of information highway to promote the factor flow in a larger range of space. (2) Under the background of accelerating factor flow, regional differentiated green development countermeasures should be determined according to local conditions. The southern hilly areas which are rich in natural resources should be focusing on the urgent improvement of the level of science and technology and management to cope with the accelerating economic flow. (3) Improving regional information development level is the most effective means to improve land green production efficiency at present, and the overall informatization level of urban circle should be improved as soon as possible. In terms of population flow, the flow of innovative and high-quality talents should be paid attention.

Under the background of the “double carbon” goal, the green transformation of the manufacturing sector is a crucial factor to realize carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Since basins are essential support for the construction of ecological civilization, this paper measured the efficiency of green transformation of the manufacturing industry based on the panel data of 21 provinces (cities and districts) in the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Pearl River basins from 2006 to 2020, using the undesirable super-efficiency SBM model. This paper made a multi-level comparison of the green transformation efficiency in the above three river basins from the perspective of efficiency level, dynamic change, and variance analysis. Furthermore, we analyzed the influencing factors of the green transformation of the manufacturing industry. This research demonstrated a fluctuating upward trend in the manufacturing industry’s green transformation efficiency. Additionally, the issue of uneven green manufacturing industry efficiency was detected between river basins, with the Yangtze and Pearl River basins having higher levels of green manufacturing efficiency than the Yellow River basin. Human capital variables were not found to have substantial impacts on the efficiency of the green transformation of industrial businesses, however, the level of urbanization, environmental restrictions, and foreign investment were identified to have significant impacts. Based on the above outcomes, countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to increase the manufacturing sectors’ green transformation efficiency in the three river basins.

The coordination degree of water resources development and protection and green development is of great significance for the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This paper conducted a comprehensive study on the composite relationship between water resources development and protection and green development. The DPSIR model was used to construct the evaluation index system of water resources development and protection and green development. This paper also adopted the global entropy concept and the obstacle degree diagnostic method to identify the coupling coordination degree of water resources development and protection and green development and to explore the main influencing factors. The results showed that the overall level of water resources development and protection in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2015 to 2019 was low, and the level of green development was rising. The spatial distribution of water resources development and protection level and green development level showed the imbalance of “high in the east and low in the middle and west”. The coupling coordination degree showed an increasing trend. In 2019, the coupling coordination degree was at the intermediate coupling stage in Shanghai (0.714), Jiangsu (0.739) and Zhejiang (0.693). The overall spatial distribution showed a trend of “high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west”. In 2019, the obstacle factors from the water resources development and protection system accounted for 75%, including annual afforestation area and urban water conservation. Overall, the coupling coordination degree was greatly affected by human activities and resource endowment.

ysis were conducted upon the extreme heat and drought event in the basin during the summer 2022 and upon the impacts of this event on hydropower resources. Preliminary analysis was also carried out in  the cause analysis regarding the anomalies of the sea temperature and the atmospheric circulation. The results showed that: (1) The summer 2022 reached the highest in the average temperature and high temperature days, and the lowest in the average precipitation for the same period since 1961 in the YRB. Heat wave and deficit rainfall led to the rapid development of meteorological drought, which covered the largest area in the basin for this summer since 1961. (2) Continuous high temperature and deficit rainfall significantly reduced stream flow for the mainstreams and tributaries in the basin, creating an unusual “Dryness during the Flood Season” phenomenon. The runoff in August 2022 was reduced by 45% to 65% compared with that in the same period in historic records. The inflow, outflow and hydropower generation of the major large hydropower stations in the YRB significantly decreased, reaching the lowest or almost the smallest during the last 5 years. (3) The weak transport of water vapor driven by the abnormal high and westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was regarded as the main factors causing this extreme heat and drought event. Moreover, the continuous development of La Nia was an important SST background. The SST in the central equatorial Pacific was relatively low, while the SST in the western Pacific warm pool was abnormally warm, and therefore, the Walker Circulation was enhanced. By modulating the Hadley Circulation, an anticyclone was developed over the northwestern Pacific and finally strengthened the WPSH

Rural residents benefit from river basin ecosystems as a result of the interaction of natural, social, and economic systems. Based on 798 questionnaires of rural residents in the Xin’an River Basin, a logical framework of the well-being effects of watershed ecosystem services and the paths to achieve was constructed by combining the theory of planned behavior. This study analyzed the needs and demand satisfaction status of watershed residents in terms of the importance of watershed ecosystem services and residents’ well-being satisfaction, and explored the specific process of natural ecosystem flow to well-being by using structural equation modeling. The results showed that: (1) rural residents in the river basin are mainly pure farmers, and their livelihood patterns hada relatively high demand for provisioning and regulating services, so the importance perception is high as well.The overall change of ecosystem services in the watershed demonstrated a slightly increasing trend; (2) Residents’ satisfaction with health well-being is high, while satisfaction with freedom and choice of well-being is low. The satisfaction status of higher-order well-being needs was poor and was difficult to achieve; (3) Well-being was the result of the residents’ initiative as the main body of action to promote the formation of a positive interaction between the natural ecological system and the social and economic system. Two paths were concluded. The first path was:the importance of ecosystem services → ecological awareness → change in ecosystem services → well-being of residents; The second one: the importance of ecosystem services → ecological awareness → willingness to participate → eco-environmental behavior → change in ecosystem services → well-being of residents. Finally, this paperput forward suggestions on promoting the realization of well-being in terms of the improvement of residents’ ecological cognition, the transformation and upgrading of sustainable livelihoods, the development of incentives and penalties, and the exercise of the subjective initiative of action subjects.

In order to understand the characteristics of sediment transport and its response to rainfall change, runoff change and human activities in the Xiang River, Zi River, Yuan River and Li River Basins of Hunan Province in the past 60 years, the trend analysis, abrupt change analysis, periodicity analysis of rainfall and sediment transport were conducted. Results indicated: (1)The annual rainfall and storm in all four basins and the annual runoff in the Xiang River, Zi River and Yuan River Basins appeared an increasing trend, while the annual runoff in the Li River Basin appeared a decreasing trend. However, the annual sediment transport in all the four basins decreased significantly. (2) There was a consistency in the interdecadal variation trend of rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in each river basin, but the variation ranges were different in different decades. (3) There were no significant abrupt changes in rainfall and runoff, while the sediment transport indicated a significant abrupt decrease in 1998 for Xiang River and Zi River Basins, and in 1994 for Yuan River and Li River Basins. (4) The first main cycle of rainfall and sediment transport in the Xiang River Basin was consistent with the second main cycle of runoff, which were around 53-55 years; The first main cycle of runoff and sediment transport in the Zi River and Yuan River Basins were 35-36 years, which was close to the second main cycle of 43 years for rainfall;The first main cycle of rainfall and runoff and the third main cycle of sediment transport in the Li River Basin was the same, which was 53-55 years. (5) For the base period,the trend was synergistic between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in the four river basins. While in the changed period affected by the combined action of rainfall, runoff and human activities, sediment transport demonstrated a significant decrease and the trend synergy showed a gradual divergent. This implied that human activities were the main factors causing the reduction of sediment transport. In summary, sediment transport may be regulated through the construction of dams and the configuration of soil and water conservation measures. Through reasonable regulation, we may balance the utilization of natural resources, development of social economy and the improvement in ecological environment. 

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of vegetation is a critical component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, and plays an important rolein global climate change and carbon equilibrium. Based on the CASA model, this study calculated and compared the spatial variations and key controlling factors of NPP in the Heihe River Basin, Weihe River Basin, and the lower reach of Yangtze River Basin from 2010 to 2019. These three basins represented the arid, semi-arid and humid zones, respectively. Results indicated that:(1) The NPP value and its increasing rate in the lower reach of Yangtze River Basin wereobviously higher than those in the Heihe River Basin and Weihe River Basin.(2)The area proportions and areal mean NPP values of different land cover types were the dominant factors determining the spatial patterns of NPP in the three basins. Grassland and the unutilized land had the greatest contributions to the NPP in the Heihe River Basin, while grassland and farmland contributed the most to the total NPP in both the Weihe River Basin and the lower reach of Yangtze River Basin. (3) The spatial patterns of NPP in different basins variedaccording to thespatial patterns of elevation and slope. However, similar increasing and then decreasing trend of the NPP with the increasing of annual mean temperature and precipitation were also observed in these three basins.(4) The NPP in the Weihe River Basin was primarily influenced by the meteorological factors, while that in the lower reach of Yangtze River Basin was strongly influenced by the terrain factors, and in the Heihe River Basin, the meteorological and terrain factors had similar effects on the NPP. These results are of significant importance for identifying the main controlling factors of vegetation NPP changes in different climatic regions and for estimating  the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems.

As one of the top greenhouse gas emitters, Jiangsu province is also severely affected by climate change. Hence, Jiangsu province should take the responsibility and obligation to achieve carbon peak ahead of the national plan. Based on the LEAP and WEAP models, this paper constructs a bottom-up model for energy and water resources synergistic management, which is used to explore the potential carbon peaking paths in Jiangsu Province and its impacts on energy and water resources. The results show that: (1) Under the comprehensive policy scenario of industrial structure adjustment, energy intensity reduction, promotion of clean energy use, and power structure optimization, Jiangsu province can achieve a rapid carbon emission peak in 2028, and the main contribution to emission reduction comes from industrial and transportation sectors. (2) The adjustment of industrial structure and the reduction of energy intensity can bring about 43.8 million tons of standard coal of energy-saving effect. (3) Climate change will intensify the competitive use of water resources in different sectors, while industrial restructuring, energy intensity reduction, promotion of clean energy use and power structure optimization, and other measures can alleviate the pressure on water resources in different sectors. The fast peak-reaching scenario can bring some 11.8% of water-saving effect.

Water ecological civilization is the basic guarantee of ecological civilization. Understanding of the spatial pattern and convergence of water ecological civilization advancement level is supportive to the comprehensive and coordinated construction of water ecological civilization. Taking the Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt as the research area, a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of seven dimensions of water security, water ecology, water environment, water conservation, water supervision, water culture and water facilities was constructed. The entropy method comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water ecological civilization development level from 2006 to 2020. The framework system of exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA) was introduced to analyze the spatial pattern of the development level of water ecological civilization and the dynamic evolution of spatio-temporal dependence from the perspective of spatio-temporal interaction. The spatial panel econometric model was compared and further selected to conduct an empirical analysis on the convergence of the development level of water ecological civilization. This study found that: (1) During the survey period, the construction of water ecological civilization in the study area achieved remarkable results. In particular, the development level was doubled after 2013. However, water ecology, water culture and water supervision were still in the low levels. The characteristics of spatial distribution evolved from "high low medium" dumbbell type distribution in 2006 to "high medium low" ladder type distribution in 2020, and spatial path locking and transition coexisted. (2) The development level of water ecological civilization had significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics. The relative length of the LISA time path was larger in the east than in the west. 84% of the cities had low curvature of the LISA time path, lacked coordination and integration in the moving direction, and had transition inertia. The local spatial correlation pattern was relatively stable. (3) σ Convergence did not exist in the construction of water ecological civilization, but there existed significant absolute value β convergence and conditional β convergence, and moreover, the conditional β convergence was much faster. (4) The convergence of local urban water ecological civilization development was significantly affected by economic development level, urbanization and the negative spatial spillover effect of neighboring cities as well.

In order to promote the Yangtze River conservation, and to achieve sustainable development of circular agriculture, the safety issue of aquaculture wastewater reuse for farmland irrigation was investigated in this research. In March 2022, the concentrations of metal, pesticides, and antibiotics in shrimp/crab and fish aquaculture wastewater, under typical cultivation mode, were observed along the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River. Nemerowpollution index method and ecological risk index method were adopted to assess the risk levels and feasibility of irrigation. Results showed that Zn was the most abundant heavy metal, and the concentration in shrimp/crab ponds and fish ponds were 19.40 and 15.39 μg·L-1, followed by Ni, As, and Pb. Prometryn was the most abundant pesticide, reaching concentrations of 149.28 ng·L-1, while herbicides and fungicides were the main types of pesticides in aquaculture wastewater. In addition, florfenicol was the most abundant antibiotic, reaching concentrations of 151.40 ng·L-1, while macrolides and amides were the main types of antibiotics in shrimp/crab ponds and fish ponds, respectively. The risk assessment results indicated that heavy metals were below the limit of the ‘Farmland Irrigation Water Quality Standard (GB5084-2021)’, and only Hg in pond S1 had a potential risk, causing the wastewater of shrimp/crab ponds appear to reach the level of slightly-polluted. When considering ecological risks to phytoplankton, both pesticides and antibiotics in fish ponds posed high risks with an average RQ of 4.11 and 36.94, respectively. And in shrimp/crab wastewater, only pesticides posed a high risk towards phytoplankton with an average RQ of 2.72. Hg and metolachlor in shrimp/crab ponds, metolachlor, carbendazim, florfenicol, and sulfamethoxazole in fish ponds were potential risk sources of pollution. However, the contents of metals, pesticides, and antibiotics in aquaculture wastewater were less than the effective concentration of crops. Therefore, aquaculture wastewater could be used for farmland irrigation, and monitoring and treatment of target pollutants are required for long-term application.

Habitat quality is an important representation of biodiversity maintenance capacity.The study of land use change can provide a scientific basis for the assessment of spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of regional habitat quality. Based on the land use data in 2000, 2010, and 2020.The bubble map method, InVEST model, and PLUS model were integrated to evaluate and predict the land use transformation and associated habitat quality evolution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Chongqing section) from 2000 to 2030.Ecological contribution rates were used to explore the types of land use transfers that ledto the improvement and deterioration of habitat quality. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the center of gravity of various types of land use changed significantly, the area of cultivated land and grassland showed a trend of continuous decline, and the area of construction land continued to increase.The trend of land use change from 2020 to 2030 was basically the same as that from 2000 to 2020, and the cultivated land was mainly transformed into construction land. (2) Habitat quality was greatly affected by the intensity of human activities. The habitat quality in the study area was mainly “medium” and “excellent”.From 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality showed a trend of an increase, followed bya decrease. From 2020 to 2030, habitat quality showed a trend of continuous decline. (3) There are two trends of habitat quality: improvement and deterioration. The conversion of cultivated land to woodland and grassland from 2000 to 2020 was the main reason for the improvement of habitat quality.The conversion of grassland and woodland to cultivated land was the main reason for the deterioration of habitat quality. The conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land was predicted to be the main cause of habitat quality deterioration during 2020-2030. The results provided important theoretical support and scientific reference for the improvement of habitat quality, optimization of territorial spatial layout, and sustainable utilization of land resources in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (Chongqing section).

The synergy of pollution and carbon reduction can measure environmental benefits and as well as climateand economic benefits, and will definitely become an inevitable choice to achieve comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development in the procedure of ecological civilization in China. As a major platform and important policy grip for the construction of ecological civilization in the new era, the establishment of national ecological civilization demonstration area is of practical significance to study the synergistic of pollution and carbon reduction to crack the real dilemma of tightening resource constraints, serious environmental pollution and ecosystem degradation. Based on the data from 209 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019, a multi-period double difference and extended spatial forms was used to assess the synergistic effect of the pilot policy of national ecological civilization demonstration area on urban pollution and carbon reduction. The results showed that:(1) the pilot policy of national ecological civilization demonstration area significantly promotedthe synergistic of urban pollution and carbon reduction, and this finding is still valid after a series of robustness tests. (2) The Bacon Decomposition found that the "good treatment group" accounted for 98.33%, implying that the validity of the model setting was further verified. (3) The spatial spillover of the pilot policy showed the characteristics of "beggar-thy-neighbor". There existed significant differences among cities with different technology endowment, industrial agglomeration scale, and environmental regulation intensity.Accordingly,this paperproposed to promotethe orderly diffusion of pilot policies, optimizing the spatial layout of policies, and designing a gradient development strategy.

Understanding of carbon effects and driving factors of the expansion and evolution of urban construction lands, can provide important reference for China to achieve the goals of the carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and territorial spatial planning. However, due to the limitations of statistical data, it is often difficult to separate the carbon effects of urban construction land expansion. By employing an inversion model, combined with the spatial Dobbin panel model, this paper comprehensively studied the ecological and anthropogenic carbon effects of urban construction land expansion, and its spatial agglomeration characteristics and the corresponding driving factors in China under the new normal. The results showed that: (1)The expansion rate of urban construction land in China’s provincial regions showed different trends, and was generally developing towards an increased balance among regions.(2)The losses of ecological carbon storage caused by the expansion of urban construction lands were generally increasing, and the ecological carbon densities of the occupied lands were also rising. However, the total amount and intensities of anthropogenic carbon emissions borne by the new urban construction lands presented a decreasing trend. Both ecological and anthropogenic carbon effects of urban construction land expansion had obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics. The former fluctuated strongly, while the latter was relatively stable and presented in the shape of a block.(3)According to results of the spatial Durbin panel model,technological progress and increased local foreign investment were conducive to reducing the carbon effect of newly expanded urban construction land.Population density, regional affluence, and industrial structure were all positively influencing factors.The spatial spillover effect of population density was the strongest, while the direct effect of regional prosperity was the strongest.The direct effect of opening up was negative, while its spatial spillover effect was positive.(4) It was suggested to avoid the occupation of land with high carbon storage, to use the energy conservation and environmental protection technologies of high-quality foreign enterprises, to pay attention to green and low-carbon technology research and development and to make good use of space spillover effects, in order to form a more green and low-carbon pattern of urban construction land expansion.