Abstract:

Statistics methods including linear regression analysis,correlation analysis and autoregression model have been utilized to investigate the annual and seasonal climatic change and its impacts on the ecological environment in the past 50 years (1957~2004) in Jinshui River Basin,Shaanxi.The results show that the annual mean air temperature has totally increased 111℃ with significant increase in winters in the past 50 years.In the early 1990s and 2000s,the annual temperature has increased most with a magnitude of 06℃. Annual precipitation has decreased 1196 mm with larger decrease in summer precipitation during the same time period.During 1985~1997,annual precipitation has decreased with the maxima of 3452 mm.It seems that the temperature of the basin will continually increase 013℃,while the precipitation will decrease 78% than before.The climate change in the past 50 years in Jinshui River Basin had led to dramatic impacts on the ecoenvironment.The ecosystem is more vulnerable and it has threatened the water security for the Middle Line of China’s SouthtoNorth Water Transfer Project.

Key words: Jinshui River Basin/ climate change/ecological environment/impact