Abstract:

Taking Xitiaoxi catchment located in the upper reaches of Taihu Lake basin as a case，the land use scenario in 2020 is simulated by applying CLUES model and Markov model with the spatial data of land use in 1985 and 2002 and the driving factors affecting land use change.Based on the forecasted land use map of 2020，the temporal and spatial patterns of land use are investigated with landscape metrics from both class and landscape levels.The results reveal that the significant characteristics of land use change in the future will be the increase of construction land and the decrease of farmland and forest land.In the future，the landscape metrics in the study area will change greatly.In the landscape level，patch number，patch density，diversity and evenness index and shape indices all increase，while the average patch area decreases.It indicates that the landscape is fragmenting，the patch shape is becoming more complicated，and the land use will advance toward diversity and homogenization.Moreover，the landscape heterogeneity varies with different kinds of landscapes，indicating the complexity of landscape ecosystem.

Key words: land use and land cover change/ simulation of spatial pattern/ landscape pattern/ Xitiaoxi catchment