Abstract:

Using the outputs simulated by GCM models provided by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCCAR4)，the situation of climate change in the Three Gorges area in the future 100 years under SRES A2，A1B and B1 greenhouse gas was analyzed by the method of Multimodel Ensembles.The results show that the Multimodel Ensembles carried out using a suite of wellperforming models can well simulate the change of temperature and precipitation in the Three Gorges area.The climate in the Three Gorges area shows a warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century.The range of linear tendency of temperature changes is 2.1~4.2℃/100 a，and precipitation is 6.10%~9.70%/100 a.The largest range of warming is in winter，while the largest increase of precipitation is also in winter.The annual temperature will increase constantly in the 21st century.The annual precipitation will decrease in the early stage of 21st century，and increase in middle and late stage of 21st century.Considering the effect of SRES A2，A1B and B1，the temperature in the Three Gorges area would be increased by 3.7，3.3 and 2.2℃ respectively，and the precipitation would be increased by 4.4%，5.5% and 3.5% respectively at the end of 21st century.

Key words: IPCC-AR4/ Multimodel Ensembles/ climate change/ the Three Gorges area