Abstract:

The study of economic periodicities and its driving forces could mitigate strong fluctuation of economic cycle. And it is important for optimizing economic management and promoting steady economic growth.The fluctuation periods per capita GDP in Hubei Province during 1952~2007 were analyzed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method.The main factors which influence the per capita GDP fluctuation in Hubei province were discussed with partial leastsquares regression (PLSR) method.The results showed that per capita GDP in Hubei Province kept increasing with fluctuation in the past 56 years.The obvious undulation cycles of per capita GDP in Hubei Province were 4.7,11.2,and 56 years over last 56 years.The common influenced factors affecting correlative coefficients of per capita GDP in Hubei Province are founded at their different timescales.They are gross capital formation,coal production,cement production,total value of exports and imports,total passengerkilometers.The different factors are total retail sales of consumer goods,household consumption expenditures,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,steel production,and total freight tonkilometers at 4.7 years timescale according to the size of their driving forces.There are total retail sales of consumer goods,electricity,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and steel production at 11.2 years timescale.There are household consumption expenditures,government consumption expenditure,business volume of postal and telecommunication services at 56 years timescale.There are total retail sales of consumer goods,household consumption expenditures,government consumption expenditure,electricity,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,steel production,business volume of postal and telecommunication services,and total freight tonkilometers at residual trend timescale.The findings suggest that policymakers in Hubei Province and China should attach more importance to boosting the capital accumulation and its formation,administrating effectively coal and cement major industrial products,making reasonable import and export trade strategy,improving the efficiency of passenger transport and its capacity,etc.