Abstract:

Based on the synchronous natural annual runoff time series from 1960 to 2000 year at Daofu,Chuosijia,Zumuzu and Lanzhou hydrological stations,Copula method was applied to construct the runoff joint distribution between the rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project and the upper reach of the Yellow River,and the synchronousasynchronous encounter probabilities of richpoor runoff between them were thoroughly analyzed.The results show that with the order as Xianshui River,Chuosijia River,Zumuzu River from west to east,the synchronous(asynchronous)encounter probabilities of richpoor runoff between the rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project and the upper reach of the Yellow River augment(decrease)orderly and the synchronous probability between Zumuzu River and the upper reach of the Yellow River has been greater than the asynchronous probability between them;The probabilities that are propitious to transfer water resources to the Yellow River decrease orderly,but they all greater than 30% and they are a little greater than the corresponding probabilities in the Middle Route of South to North Water Transfer Project;the synchronous poor probabilities between the two areas are all bellow 26%,and all of these results are propitious to carry through construction of the First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project.