Abstract:

Ecological environment earlywarning in the process of Xinjiang urbanization was studied in order to take preventive measures before degeneration of ecological qualitaty caused by urbanization.In this study,the index system of ecological quality evaluation and the extenics evaluation model of urbanization were built.Evaluation index of ecological quality in Xinjiang was predicted by the grey forecast model  from 2010 to 2014 and the ecological quality from 2005 to 2014 was analyzed.The results showed that each index of ecological environment had the same trend between 2010-2014 and 2005-2009 in Xinjiang.Per capita amount of water resources，proportion of ecological water，controlling rate of forest pest and disease significantly reduced.The other 10 ecological environment quality index was optimized.Then,the ecological environment quality of urbanization in Xinjiang was obtained.The resource subsystem would experience the process of improvementdeteriorationimprovement.Ecological subsystem would experience process of improvement after the deterioration.The environment subsystem would continue improvement.In addition,if Xinjiang could control the population growth，the reduction of per capita water resources and proportion of ecological water,we could control the deterioration of ecological system and make optimization on the quality of ecological environment.Therefore,in the process of Xingjiang urbanization in future,we should control population growth and conserve water resources to ensure an adequate amount of water resources and ecological water;save residential and industrial land,protect oasis of Xinjiang；improve forest coverage and control forest pest;continuously increase investment in order to control environment pollution and reduce the discharge of industrial waste.When it is coordinated state on coupling system of urbanization and ecological environment,Xinjiang urbanization will realize sustainable development