Abstract:

In this study, some factors affecting carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province were empirically analyzed by extended STIRPAT model, such as the total population，population urbanization，the proportion of the aged，the family size, per capital consumption expenditure, carbon emissions intensity. The results showed that among the influential factors of carbon emissions in this paper，the family size had significant negative effects. The shrinking trend of the family size might cancel out the decrease of carbon emissions reduction stress due to the population growth slowed down, and result in the total carbon emissions still presenting larger growth. In the significant positive influential causes, flexibility of proportion of the elderly people was maximum, followed by per capital consumption expenditure，the total population，population urbanization level and carbon emissions intensity. Considering the population structure，the carbon emissions flexibility of the population size was less than 1，lack of flexibility. It means that the influence that the total population had on carbon emissions in Jiangsu province began to slow down. But the effect of the population structure and population urbanization level appeared gradually. Especially the elastic of proportion of the aged，had surpassed the carbon emissions influenced flexibility of the population size. The population urbanization process and the per capital consumption expenditure had intensified carbon emissions directly. Technological progress had some effect on restraining carbon emissions，but was not significant. Based on the above conclusions, the following policy proposals were puts forward. (1) After the family planning for 30 years，the Jiangsu province have made great contributions to reduce carbon emissions. In the present stable low natural growth rate，controlling population is not the only way to cut down the carbon emissions. It is not the best way，either.(2) The significant influence of aging populations on carbon emissions indicates that we should pay attention to the effect of the population structure, especially the effects of aging population on economic development and carbon emissions in China. (3) The government could slow down the speed of urbanization，optimize energy consumption structure and improve the efficiency of energy utilization，adjust the industrial structure，develop the energy conservation and environmental protection technology intensive industry, advocate low carbon way of life and consumption model to realize the goal of emission reduction gradually during the process of urbanization.(4) Technology progress meaning to reduce carbon emissions should be the main development direction in the future，including cleaning production technology, carbon capture and storage，etc.