Abstract:

Carbon emissions from planting industry in China during the period of 1992-2010 as well as those of 31 provinces in 2010 were first estimated in this study. Based on the estimation, to explore the relationship between planting industry development and its carbon emissions, some econometric methods, such as the sequence stationary test, cointegration test, were applied into the analysis of the relevant data of planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions in China during the period of 1992-2010. The results showed that: （1）Planting industry carbon emissions in the year of 2010 was 183668 4 million tons, showing an increase of 3562% compared to 1992. Carbon emissions caused by agricultural material inputs, paddy fields and soil accounted for 5326%, 3492% and 1182% of the total, respectively. There existed obvious regional difference. The top ten regions accounted for 6297% of the total planting industry carbon emissions, while the last ten regions accounted for only 718%. And the planting industry carbon emission intensity of Jiangxi province was the highest, reaching as high as 1 19786 kilograms per ten thousand Yuan value of planting industrial output, while Beijing was the lowest, as low as 21986 kilograms per ten thousand Yuan value of planting industrial output. （2）There existed cointegration relationship between planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions, suggesting a longterm equilibrium relationship. The planting industry development by 1% leads to an increase of 0413 5% of planting industry carbon emissions, resulted in that the longterm elasticity of planting industry carbon emissions for planting industry development was 0413 5. According to the shortterm error correction model, the shortterm elasticity of planting industry carbon emissions for planting industry development was 0641 7, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism existed between them. The error correction coefficient (-0423 4) was negative, in line with the reverse correction mechanism. With the existence of shortterm deviation of planting industry carbon emissions from the longrun equilibrium, 4234 % of shortterm deviation will be adjusted in order to achieve equilibrium in long term, while longterm deviation of planting industry development cannot be adjusted by system factors except external force. （3）The Granger causality test showed that planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions were reciprocal causation relationship. There respectively existed unidirectional causal relationship of planting industry development to planting industry carbon emissions at the lag length of 1, and unidirectional causal relationship of planting industry carbon emissions to the planting industry development at the lag length of 2. At the lag length of 3, there was a twoway causal relationship between planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions. Therefore, it can be broadly considered that planting industry development and planting industry carbon emissions are mutually reinforcing. （4）The analysis of impulse response function showed a weak response of planting industry development to a standard shock of planting industry carbon emissions, and a more intense reaction of planting industry carbon emissions to a standard shock of planting industry development. 3757 % of the change in planting industry carbon emissions could be explained by the impact of planting industry development while only 680 % of planting industry development could be explained by the increase in planting industry carbon emissions