RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (9): 2068-2081.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202009017

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Spatio-temporal Change of Persistent Extreme Precipitation and the Associated Circulation Causes Over China in the Last 60 Years

CHEN Xing-ren, YANG Yue, HE Jia-nan, QI Xi, WU Zheng-fang, DU Hai-bo   

  1. (Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education,
    School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)
  • Online:2020-09-20 Published:2020-09-30

Abstract: Extreme precipitation usually has strong uncertainty of duration. The extreme precipitation event persisting for multi-days may cause great disaster. However, there is a lack of research on extreme precipitation variation and its circulation factors from the perspective of extreme precipitation persistence. Based on the daily precipitation grid data set and atmospheric circulation index data from 1961 to 2018 in China, this study defines extreme precipitation lasting for 2 days or more as persistent extreme precipitation events. We analyze the spatio-temporal changes and causes of the occurrence frequency, number of persistent days, total annual persistent extreme precipitation and maximum annual persistent extreme precipitation in different regions of China. The results show that: (1) In the past 60 years, persistent extreme precipitation events in China have a high incidence and a long duration in the arid regions (Mongolia-Xinjiang region and Qinghai-Tibet region), while the intensity of persistent extreme precipitation events is higher in the humid regions (eastern region). (2) The frequency and intensity of persistent extreme precipitation events in China show an increasing trend. However, on the regional scale, there is no obvious change trend in the eastern region. The drier the region, the greater the increase trend. The spatial distribution patterns are similar among index change trends. (3) The contribution rate of persistent extreme precipitation events to the total precipitation shows a slow growth trend which, however, is not obvious in the eastern region. (4) There are significant correlations between the western Pacific subtropical high, the South China Sea subtropical high, the western Pacific warm pool, the Asian polar vortex, the northern hemisphere polar vortex and the persistent extreme precipitation events in China. On the regional scale, the western Pacific subtropical high has the greatest impact on Mongolia-Xinjiang region and Qinghai-Tibet region, while the eastern region is greatly affected by the western Pacific subtropical high and the western Pacific warm pool. Generally speaking, the western Pacific subtropical high has the greatest impact on China's persistent extreme precipitation events, the strengthening of the western Pacific subtropical high will lead to more persistent extreme precipitation in China.

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