RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (1): 137-150.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202301013

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Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 Models and  Future Changes Over the Yangtze River Basin

WU Jian1,2,3, XIA Jun2,3,4, ZENG Si-dong2,3, LIU Xin2,3, FAN Di2,3   

  1. (1. Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China; 2. Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology,
     Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing 400714, China; 3. Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 
    Chongqing 400714, China; 4. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,
    Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)
  • Online:2023-01-20 Published:2023-03-09

Abstract: Global climate change mainly characterized by global warming has a great impact on the natural environment and socioeconomic development.As the largest basin in China, the Yangtze River Basin very sensitive to the impact of climate change. Prediction of future climate change can provide important scientific basis to deal with the future uncertainty. In order to make more accurate prediction of temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River basin in the future, this paper assesses the performance of historical rainfall data and temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Yangtze River Basin. The better performed models are selected and corrected. In addition, the future temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) The performance of climate models on temperature is better than that of precipitation, and on the time scale is monthly scale > daily scale > annual scale. There is a certain degree of underestimation for temperature simulation and a certain degree of overestimation for precipitation simulation. (2) Regional scale research using climate models is necessary to conduct evaluation and calibration. After evaluating optimization and corrected by seasonal scale, correction of the data accuracy has been significantly improved, witch proves quantile mapping method can be applied to climate model correction of the data, but for extreme precipitation and temperature calibration still exist some shortcomings. In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, future temperature and precipitation changes will continue to increase instably for a period of time, and then tend to stabilize over time. In the other three scenarios, the rate of change accelerated over time. In the future, the precipitation and temperature in the Yangtze River Basin will be higher than that in the historical period under all scenarios, and the performance is SSP5-8.5> SSP3-7.0> SSP2-4.5> SSP1-2.6. Seasonally, the temperature changes greatly in spring and winter, while the precipitation changes little in autumn. Spatially, the regions with higher precipitation increase are mainly located in the headwaters and northeast of the Yangtze River, while the regions with higher temperature increase are mainly located in the upper reaches and headwaters of the Yangtze River. 

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