RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (05): 789-797.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201505011

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LAND USE SCENARIO SIMULATION OF THE MAIN CITY OF CHONGQING BASED ON THE CLUE-S MODEL

ZHU Kang-wen1,2,3, LI Yue-chen2,3, ZHOU Meng-tian1,2,3   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China;
    2. Institue of Eco-Environment Remote Sensing in Three Gorges Resegvoir, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China;
    3. Key laboratory of GIS application, Chongqing 401331, China
  • Received:2014-04-08 Revised:2014-05-28 Online:2015-05-20
  • Contact: 李月臣 E-mail:iyuechen2008@qq.com

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Abstract: Land use change is one of the main research subjects of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use models are useful for disentangling complex socio-economic and biophysical factors that influence the rate and spatial pattern of land use change, and for estimating the impacts of land use changes. Furthermore, models can support the exploration of future land use change under different scenarios and conditions. Taking the Chongqing metropolitan area as a case, we used 120 m × 120 m raster data and the SPSS and ArcGIS 10.1 software to construct a dynamic simulation model in different scenarios of land use/cover change. The CLUE-S model, which is based on comprehensive considerations on the basis of natural and human factors, can simulate small-scale land use change scenarios with characteristics of integrity, openness, spatiality and competitive efficiency. Firstly, 6 key driving factors, including elevation, slope (0°-5°, 5°-15° and >15°), distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to local financial revenue and so on, were identified by using logistic stepwise regression method; Secondly, land use data in 2000 and 2005 were used respectively to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in 2005 and 2010 for the main city of Chongqing. Lastly, the simulated land use map in 2010 was compared with the actual land use map in 2010 to validate simulation results. The model considers various macro driving factors and the relationship between the land use change and consider the various driving factors of land use/cover change. The SPSS software is used to determine the various factors from the regression model, in this way the precision of the simulation results are improved. The overall simulation accuracy was achieved to more than 86%, suggesting that the CLUE-S model has a good applicability in simulating land use change in the main city of Chongqing and can be used to predict future land use change. The CLUE-S model can provide a scientific basis for land-use planning and urban planning in the future. The simulation results show that, by 2030, wetland, artificial land, forest, cultivated land and other land present a decreasing trend. In contrast, grassland is slightly growing in all scenarios. Cultivated land and artificial land present the most significant changes. With time, cultivated land and forest land area are increasingly close in terms of total area.

Key words: CLUE-S model, Scenario analysis, SPSS software, Land use/cover change, Scenario simulation

CLC Number: 

  • F301.23
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