RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (08): 1418-1424.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508022

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REGIONAL FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON SCENARIO ANALYSIS——A CASE STUDY OF CHAOHU BASIN

CHENG Xian-fu1,2, DAI Meng-qin1,2, HAO Dan-dan1, WU Qing-shuang1,2   

  1. 1. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241003, China;
    2. Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241003, China
  • Received:2014-10-08 Revised:2015-01-26 Online:2015-08-20

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Abstract: Flood disaster is one of the main factors restricting regional food security and social sustainable development. The Chaohu Basin is suffering from frequent and severe floods. Floods often take place around rivers and plains, which indicates a higher risk of flooding in these areas. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood risk assessment. Methods of flood risk assessment mainly include probability statistics from the historical disaster data, hydrologic and hydraulic models and flood simulation, geo-spatial information technology, the index system, scenarios drivers as well as mathematical method. Based on risk identification, evaluation index is selected and evaluation index system is established from hazard factors, disaster environment and hazard bearing body in this paper. Evaluation indicators are mainly precipitation, terrain, river, flood, land use, population, GDP etc. Evaluation index weights are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Using the Pearson-Ⅲ model, Marko-CA model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools, flood risk complex scenarios are proposed and presented from different return period precipitation, land use, population and GDP. Based on GIS spatial analysis technology, the analytic hierarchy process and spatial raster data, flood disaster risk assessment model is constructed to evaluate the flood risk in the Chaohu Basin. The results show that flood hazard distribution pattern is reduced from southeast to northwest. The plain area along the Yangtze River of the southeastern basin has the maximum risk. The vulnerability of flood is greater with greater return period. Economic vulnerability of Hefei City is the biggest, followed by Wuwei County but the He Countys vulnerability is smaller. The 30-year flood risk has a maximum of 4.37, the 50-year flood risk has a maximum of 4.49, and the 100-year flood risk maximum value is 4.65. The risk of flood disaster becomes greater with greater return period. Flood risk reduces from southeast to northwest in Chaohu basin in 2020. High risk is in southeast of the Chaohu Basin, and low risk areas are mainly distributed in Dabieshan mountain of southwest of the Chaohu Basin. With the increase of return period, flood disaster risk gradually increases. Through a comprehensive analysis on the influencing factors of flood disasters in the Chaohu Basin, the main causes underlying the flood disaster change is explored. Simulating disaster scenario and analyzing flood risk under different scenarios can reflect flood uncertainty and variability. It also can provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs.

Key words: scenario analysis, flood disaster, risk assessment, Chaohu Basin

CLC Number: 

  • X43
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