RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2015, Vol. 24 >> Issue (08): 1270-1278.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508002

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SIMULATION OF LAND USE CHANGE AND ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES IN WUHAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION BASED ON A SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL

HE Jian-hua1,2, WANG Xiao-jun1, DU Chao3, LI Chun1, SHI Xuan1   

  1. 1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems, Ministry Education, Wuhan 430079, China;
    3. Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
  • Received:2014-09-28 Revised:2015-01-02 Online:2015-08-20
  • Contact: 王宵君 E-mail:w890206@163.com E-mail:w890206@163.com

Abstract: Land use change is one of the main research subjects of global environmental change and sustainable development and driving force is the core issue of land use change. However, existing reseach on land use change is mainly focusd on a single administrative region, which is unable to explain the effect of interaction among cities on land use change in urban agglomeration led by city integration strategy. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the interaction among cities should be considered as an effect of urban agglomeration land use change. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model which is established synthetically considering human driving forces such as population, economy, urbanization, policy, etc.. For assessing land use change led by city integration strategy in Wuhan urban agglomeration in which the interaction among cities is considered as one of driving forces. The applicability and reliability of the model was proved by the actual data of 1997-2006 from the Wuhan urban agglomeration, on the basis of it, the land use change under two different "what-if" scenarios controlled by the interaction between cities from 2010 to 2020 were simulated. The result suggested that the SD model has a certain applicability and reliability, and land use change under two different scenarios are obviously different, the speed of construction land use change in Wuhan urban agglomeration is accelerated from 2010 to 2020, but the tendency is different. It also indicated that led by "1+8"city integration strategy and with the effect of interaction among cities, the speed of construction land use change in Wuhan, Huangshi, E'zhou will be slowed down, and in other cities such as Xiantao, Tianmen, Qianjiang, the rate will increase rapidly, and this will bring the gap between cities in Wuhan urban agglomeration much closer. Not only the factors of population, economy, urbanization and policy have prominent driving effect on land use change in Wuhan urban agglomeration, interaction among cities also has good relationship with land use change. So we should pay much attention to interaction among cities, to strenghten the interaction strength between cities by improving the condition of transportation and information, aim to promote the Wuhan urban agglomeration the harmonious and sustainable development.

Key words: land use change, driving forces, Wuhan urban agglomeration, urban interaction, SD model, scenario simulation

CLC Number: 

  • F301
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