RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (01): 25-38.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201601004

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MULTI SCALE STUDY ON THE DIFFERENCES OF POPULATION AND RURAL STRUCTURE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

WU Lian-xia1, ZHAO Yuan1,2,3, GUAN Wei-hua1   

  1. 1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;
    2. GinLing College, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210024, China;
    3. Women/gender Research and Training Base, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210024, China
  • Received:2015-04-15 Revised:2015-06-24 Online:2016-01-20

Abstract: Urban and rural population structure refers to the ratios of urban and rural population to the total population. Changes in the proportion of urban and rural population are not only the results of social and economic changes, but also important factors affecting socio-economic development. Urban and rural population structure is mainly measured by the level of urbanization. Studying urbanization disparities helps to fully understand the disparities of development extent as well as socio-economic contacts within and across the regions, so that it can provide decision bases for the various regions with "local conditions" development. Therefore, the level of urbanization differences has attracted more and more attentions in China. Using the fourth, fifth and sixth national census data, the "multi-scale" analysis framework, the overall difference measure index (including standard deviation, Theil index and its decomposition), Markov chain, ESDA correlation analysis and so on, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of population structure differences between urban and rural on different scales in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2010. The results showed:(1) In the 20 years, both absolute differences and relative differences of urban and rural population structure in Jiangsu Province showed a narrowing trend at different scales, which was sharp in the first 10 years, and then showed slowing down in the later 10 years. Relative differences and the degree of narrowing decreased from county to city and region. The main influencing factors are the differences of regional basic development, driving forces and scopes of growth poles, the focuses of government policies and population migration mechanisms and other factors. Narrowing of the differences between the three regions is the biggest contribution to narrowing of all the province's difference, mainly due to the linkage effect between the three major regions through population flow, transportation, industry, resources and so on. (2) The transition probabilities of population structure types between urban and rural areas were large and fluctuant in the first 10 years, while they tend to be stable in the later 10 years. The process of regional convergence in urban of Southern Jiangsu has been globally characterized by "convergence club" since 1990, and this trend was sharpened and presences at high levels. (3) On the regional scale, polarization between South Jiangsu and North Jiangsu has eased, but from the point of view of the county scale, the gaps between most counties in the North Jiangsu and South Jiangsu are still large, which showed that small scale polarization was serious. Therefore, autocorrelation analysis of small-scale conforms to the reality. From the point of view of the county scale, hot spots and cold spots show the typical core-periphery structure and the significant North-South spatial disparities. Trickle-down effect is gradually revealed, North-South differences are narrowing. Finally, in the background of "Two Belts and One Road", some suggestions can be put forward.

Key words: urban and rural population structure disparities, Markov chain, spatial autocorrelation, multi-scale, Jiangsu Province

CLC Number: 

  • K901.3
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