近50年安徽省气候生产潜力演变及粮食安全气候承载力评估

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703013

Abstract

Abstract: As one of major grain production areas, Anhui Province plays an important role in ensuring food security in China. It is therefore critical to explore its climatic productive potential, and to assess its capacity of food supply in Anhui Province. In this paper, the step rectifying method was used to calculate the climatic potential productivity, based on the relationship between grain production and climatic factors such as solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation. The climatic capacity of food supply and its relative surplus rate were then analyzed, according to the food demand indexes under different living standards. The results showed that the climatic potential productivity exhibited a significantly spatial pattern, characterized by higher in the north and plains than the south and mountain areas. Further, the higher potential areas were mainly concentrated in the along and north region of the Huaihe River with dominance of plenty cultivated land resources. The coordination of climate and land resources was found to favor the utilization of climatic productive potential. During the period of 1961-2013, the climatic potential productivity showed a consistent decrease trend in Anhui Province. The reduction rate is provincially averaged at about 10% in the recent 50 years. In Anhui Province, the present food consumption level belongs to the transition stage from the subsistence type to well-off type. Under the premise of fully taking advantage of climatic potential productivity, the grain yield of the whole province can well satisfy the total food demand under different living standards. Specifically, for the well-off standards, the relative surplus rate of climatic capacity decreases from northeast to southwest, however the residual space of capacity is still considerable in the most parts of the province except few urban and mountainous areas, which can well guarantee the grain self-sufficient in the future development. Overall, the plenty solar radiation, heat, water and arable land resources and their coordination contribute to the high climatic capacity in Anhui Province. While the climatic potential productivity declines mainly induced by the reduction of solar radiation, the climate capacity can ensure food security in the future well-off, society and grain production has a larger promotion space in Anhui Province.

Key words: climatic potential productivity, food security, climatic capacity, relative surplus rate, spatial and temporal variation

CLC Number:

LU Yan-yu, WANG Sheng, TIAN Hong, DENG Han-qing, HE Dong-yan. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CLIMATIC POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS POPULATION CAPACITY OF FOOD SUPPLY IN ANHUI PROVINCE[J].RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(03): 428-435.

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SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CLIMATIC POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY AND ITS POPULATION CAPACITY OF FOOD SUPPLY IN ANHUI PROVINCE

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