RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (03): 436-444.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703014

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SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FUTURE TREND OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN DURING 1960 TO 2010

PAN Xin1, YIN Yi-xing1, WANG Xiao-jun2,3   

  1. 1. College of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing 210029, China;
    3. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China
  • Received:2016-08-10 Revised:2016-11-14 Online:2017-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.416710 22);Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (No.15KJB170014);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (No.2013M531384);Jiangsu Planned Projectsfor Postdoctoral Research Funds (No.1301136C)

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Abstract: In this paper, no-missing daily precipitation data during 1960-2010 from uniformly distributed stations in the Yangtze River Basin were used, and spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation were investigated with the help of trend and mutation analysis, R/S analysis and hydrologic frequency analysis method. The main results are as follows:(1) The regional average of PAV, PINT, PQ95, PF95 and PX1D-PX10D has an upward trend, and the values of the middle and lower reaches are higher than those of the upper reaches, and the changes of the indices in the middle and lower reaches are higher than those of the upper reaches. (2) The spatial distribution of PAV and PF95 is similar, but it shows negative trend in the middle and positive trend on the both sides for PAV, while it shows positive trend in the middle and negative on the both sides for PF95; The spatial distribution of PINT and PQ95 trend is similar, showing upward trend in most parts of the basin, but downward trend in the northwest of the basin. On the other hand, with the increase of duration from PX1D to PX10D, the areas where extreme precipitation decreases have significantly expanded while the area where extreme precipitation increases have significantly narrowed. (3) The extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin will remain the current trend in the future, and a majority of the extreme precipitation indices will on the increase in the future which will lead to the increase of flood risk in the basin. (4) Hydrological frequency analysis of extreme precipitation PX1D in Suining Station and PX10D in Anhua Station showed that design precipitation calculated based on the whole data is not sate. The difference will be larger with the increase of return periods, so new methods to estimate design precipitation should be investigated.

Key words: Yangtze River basin, extreme precipitation, Hurst indices, hydrological frequency analysis

CLC Number: 

  • TV125
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