RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (02): 359-367.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201902012

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Spatial-temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Grain Production and Food Security at County Level in the Yangtze River Basin from 1990 to 2015

HU Hui-zhi1, 2, WANG Jian-li1,WANG Yong1,LONG Xiao-yong1   

  1. (1.School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; 2. Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)
  • Online:2019-02-20 Published:2019-02-25

Abstract: Grain production in the Yangtze River Basin plays an important role in China. Rapid growth in population and economic development in the Yangtze River Basin over the past 30 years has occurred at the cost of encroaching croplands, resulting into the changes in grain production and food security. This paper presented a study on spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of grain production and food security at county level in the Yangtze River Basin in the recent 25 years, based on the statistics of grain production, household registration population, agricultural fertilizer use and grain crops sown areas in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015. The spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of grain production and food security were analyzed and identified by using grain change index, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), gravity centers transfer model and spatial error model (SEM). The results showed: (1) Average annual changing rate of grain production was 0.5%, respectively for 0.6% of the upstream, 0.8% of the middle and -0.7% of the lower reaches. There was a significant spatial heterogeneity in grain production. The upstream area was inferior area and the middle area was dominant growth area, Lower reaches was the weakening area. (2) The cold point clustering of grain yield distributed in the upstream area. The year of 2000 was the turning point for the pattern change in grain production and food security. The cold points clustering pattern of grain production changed from “L” type in southwest boundary to inverted “L” type in northwest boundary after 2000 in the upstream of the basin. The hot spots clustering in the JiangHuai area and the TaiHu Lake Plain disappeared after 2000 and kept gong-term decline in production grain. The changes in spatial-temporal pattern of total grain production and per capital grain were similar. (3) The gravity centers of general surplus-grain counties and important surplus-grain counties were both expressed as moving to southern and western regions. And the gravity centers of grain shortage counties and tight balance of supply-demand counties were both expressed as moving to northern and eastern regions. (4) The sown areas of grain crops and agricultural fertilizer use all had significant positive effects on grain production.

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