RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2008, Vol. 17 >> Issue (3): 346-346.

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AN IMPROVED OPTIMAL COMBINATIVE MODEL FOR POPULATION FORECAST AND ITS APPLICATION IN LAND USE PLANNING

YANG Song| ZENG Yongnian| WU Guiping| QI Qingchao| YANG Kai   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2008-05-20

Abstract:

Population forecasting is an essential work in making land use planning.The development scale and quantity of regional population are the basis for the confirmation of controlling indexes of land use and adjustment of land use structure in the overall land use planing.Therefore,scientifically and accurately predicting future population is important in making regional landuse planning.Based on analyzing several current models of population forecasting,this paper promotes an improved optimal combinative model.Taking an example of population forecast in Yongding District of Zhangjiajie City in Hunan Province,the gross population in this region was forecasted using the improved optimal combinative model.Compared with the linear regression analysis model,Grey Model GM (1,1),logistic model,and optimal combinative model,the improved optimal combinative model is much more accurate,reliable and effective for policy makers in land management.It is considered that the improved optimal combinative model is a better one for forecasting population in regional landuse planning.

Key words: population forecast, optimal combinative model, improved optimal combinative model, land use planning

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[2] ZHOU Wen-Xia-, CHEN Xiao-Yuan-, GUO Xu-Hui-. STUDY OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN LAND USE PLANNING——A CASE STUDY OF BIJIE IN GUIZHOU PROVINCE [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2009, 18(12): 1132-.
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