Abstract:

The forecasting of extreme precipitation index (R10) in the Three Gorges area for the 21st century by using the global climate system models with the SRES A2,A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report had been analyzed in this paper.The results show that the variations of R10 are not same under different SRES in the future.And compared to the current climate (1980～1999),throughout the 21st century (2011～2100 years),R10 under SRES A2 will reduce 17 days;under SRES A1B reduce 03 days;under SRES B2 increase 02 days;R10 under the average of three scenarios will reduce by an average of 06 days.In the early 21st century (2011～2040 years),the mediumterm (2041~2070 years) and late (2071～2100 years),R10 under SRES A2 will be the largest reduction in the Three Gorges area,will reduce by the average of 25 days,15 days and 1.0 days respectively,and R10 under the average of three scenarios will respectively reduce by the average of 14 days,02 days and 01 days.〖