长江流域资源与环境 >> 2023, Vol. 32 >> Issue (11): 2237-2253.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202311002

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带城镇化效率与水资源效率协调发展时空演变及驱动因素

秦尊文,聂夏清   

  1. (湖北省社会科学院长江流域经济研究所, 湖北 武汉 430077)
  • 出版日期:2023-11-20 发布日期:2023-11-28

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Drivers of Coordinated Development of Urbanization Efficiency and Water Resources Efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

QIN Zun-wen, NIE Xia-qing   

  1. (Economic Research Institute of Yangtze River Basin, Hubei Academy of Social Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China)
  • Online:2023-11-20 Published:2023-11-28

摘要: 和谐的城水关系是促进新型城镇化高质量发展、实现人与自然和谐共生的基础与关键所在。利用探索性空间数据分析方法、GTWR模型等构建流域-区域-省域-市域的跨尺度空间分异特征分析框架,以长江经济带2011~2020年110地级市为例开展实证研究,揭示长江经济带城镇化效率与水资源效率协调发展的内在规律及空间演变模式,并对其协调发展的空间异质性驱动因素展开分析。结果表明:(1)研究期内长江经济带整体城镇化效率和水资源效率均呈波动上升趋势,城镇化效率在 0.395 0~0.767 6 区间内波动上升,万元地区生产总值用水量在167.57到69.63内呈波动下降趋势;(2)长江经济带城镇化效率总体自上游地区到下游地区逐渐提升,水资源效率呈现两头高中间低的显著特征,水资源效率与城镇化效率相比存在更显著的全局空间正相关关系;(3)长江经济带城镇化效率与水资源效率两系统耦合性不断增强,由松散耦合状态向协同耦合状态演变,整体协调发展度为濒临失调型,呈现出上升-回落-再上升的螺旋式发展过程;(4)长江经济带城镇化效率与水资源效率协调发展的内在驱动因素从多年平均值的绝对值上看,主要为经济发展水平>农业发展状况>工业化水平>对外开放程度>城市行政级别>水资源禀赋。

Abstract: Harmonious urban-water relations are the basis and key to promoting the high-quality development of new urbanization and realizing the harmonious coexistence of human beings and nature. Using exploratory spatial data analysis methods and the GTWR model to construct a cross-scale spatial heterogeneity analysis framework of basin-region-province-municipality, an empirical study was conducted in 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020 to reveal the inner rules and spatial evolution patterns of the coordinated development of urbanization efficiency and water resources efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and to analyze the spatial heterogeneity drivers of its coordinated development. The spatial heterogeneity of the factors driving the coordinated development was also analyzed. The results show that: (1) the urbanization efficiency and water resources efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole show a fluctuating upward trend during the study period, with the urbanization efficiency fluctuating upward in the range of 0.395 0-0.767 6 and the water consumption of 10 000 Yuan GDP fluctuating downward in the range of 167.57 to 69.63. (2) the urbanization efficiency of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as a whole gradually increases from the upstream to the downstream areas, and the water resources efficiency shows a high level at both ends and a high level in the middle. (3) The coupling between urbanization efficiency and water resources efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is increasing, evolving from a loosely coupled state to a synergistic coupling state, and the overall coordinated development degree is on the verge of disorder, showing a spiral development process of rise-fall-rise again.(4) The intrinsic drivers of the coordinated development of urbanization efficiency and water resources efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are, in terms of absolute values of multi-year averages, mainly economic development level>agricultural development status>industrialization level>openness to the outside world>administrative level of cities>water resources endowment.

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