长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (10): 2271-2284.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202410016

• “双碳”研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

长三角区域一体化对碳排放转移的影响

韩刚1,2,唐乐1,2,3*,刘志敏4   

  1. (1. 淮阴工学院建筑工程学院,江苏 淮安 223001;2. 淮河流域城乡发展与空间规划研究所,江苏 淮安 223001;3. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏 南京 210008;4. 上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所,上海 200020)
  • 出版日期:2024-10-20 发布日期:2024-11-07

How Does Regional Integration Affect Carbon Emission Transfer? Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta, China

HAN Gang1,2, TANG Le1,2,3, LIU Zhi-min4   

  1. (1. Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai'an 223001, China; 2. Institute of Regional Development and Spatial Planning in the Huaihe River Basin, Huai'an 223001, China; 3. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 4. Institute of Urban and Demographic Studies , Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai 200020, China)
  • Online:2024-10-20 Published:2024-11-07

摘要: 随着我国“双碳”战略目标的提出,关于区域一体化对生态环境的影响,成为社会各界关注的焦点。由于不同地区间能源消费偏好的异质性,在生产资料流动的同时,必然伴随碳排放的空间转移。因此,探寻区域一体化与碳排放转移两者间的作用关系,对于区域实现绿色高质量发展至关重要。以长三角地区为实证对象,选取2011、2014、2017、2020年为时间节点,通过构建区域一体化网络和碳排放转移网络,运用社会网络分析法、双变量局部空间自相关、普通最小二乘法(OLS)、随机森林回归模型等,从网络结构相似性和相互作用两个方面,定量揭示区域一体化对碳排放转移的作用强度、方向、趋势、地理差异。研究发现,长三角区域一体化与碳排放转移具备相关性,且前者对后者表现出正向效应,但两者的联动过程又呈现鲜明的阶段性特征;受空间异质性影响,长三角子区域内部一体化建设对碳转移的空间优化成效要好于子区域之间,行政壁垒仍是阻碍长三角地区低碳、协同发展的主要原因之一。

Abstract: Regional integration refers to the free flow of production factors to achieve market openness and full competition. To achieve China's 'dual carbon' strategic goal, the impact of regional integration on the ecological environment has attracted widespread attention. Diverse energy consumption preferences in various regions inevitably lead to the spatial transfer of carbon emissions and the flow of production materials. Therefore, the relationship between regional integration and carbon emission transfer should be critically examined to achieve high-quality green development. This study used 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta as empirical objects and selected 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2020 as the time nodes. The regional integration network was built based on five dimensions: transportation, market, industry, information and culture. Night light data were used to estimate urban carbon emissions. The carbon emission transfer network between cities was simulated using the multi-regional input-output table. From the perspective of network form, structural correlation and interaction, we used social network analysis, cumulative distribution function, bivariate local spatial autocorrelation, ordinary least squares (OLS) and random forest regression model to quantitatively analyse the intensity, direction, trend and geographical difference of regional integration and its impact on carbon emission transfer. We found that the Yangtze River Delta had a heterogeneous spatial organisation pattern of regional integration and carbon emission transfer networks; however, the network topology had a significant correlation. The Yangtze River Delta's regional integration had a positive effect on carbon emission transfer and also showed distinct stage characteristics, implying that building integration would accelerate the flow of carbon emissions in the current stage. However, with the continuous optimisation of economic geography patterns and resource allocation, the positive relationship between regional integration and carbon emission transfer was likely to change. Influenced by the level of development, coordination mechanism, and spatial proximity, the spatial optimisation effect of integration construction within the Yangtze River Delta was better than that between its sub-regions. However, administrative barriers continued to hinder the low-carbon and the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta.

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