长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (1): 100-110.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202501008

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

湖北省“水-能源-粮食”系统耦合协调度评价研究

田培1,樊婧琨1,金贵2,吴光东3,赵泽群1   

  1. (1.华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院/地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430079;2.中国地质大学(武汉) 经济管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074;3.长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,湖北 武汉 430010)
  • 出版日期:2025-01-20 发布日期:2025-01-24

Evaluation on Coupling and Coordination Degree of‘Water-Energy-Food’ System in Hubei Province

TIAN Pei1, FAN Jing-kun1, JIN Gui2, WU Guang-dong3, ZHAO Ze-qun1   

  1. (1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences/Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China; 2. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074,China; 3. Water Resources Department, Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China)
  • Online:2025-01-20 Published:2025-01-24

摘要: 水、能源、粮食是保障人类生产生活的基础性物质,揭示湖北省“水-能源-粮食”(WEF)系统的耦合协调程度及其演变趋势,可为其资源配置及可持续发展提供科学依据。通过构建湖北省WEF系统耦合协调发展评价指标体系,定量评价了2002~2022年湖北省 WEF 系统耦合协调发展状况,并运用ARIMA模型预测2025~2040年的WEF系统耦合协调度。结果表明:2002~2022年湖北省WEF系统综合发展评价指数总体呈上升趋势其中水资源的发展指数对其的影响最大;WEF系统处于高水平耦合阶段;WEF系统耦合协调关系表现出逐步向好的趋势;ARIMA模型预测结果表明2025~2040年湖北省WEF系统的耦合协调度均处于高度耦合阶段。资源的综合发展评价指数显示,湖北省水资源的综合发展水平仍不稳定,并影响了WEF系统向协调方向发展的速率,故加强水资源保护及优化用水结构是实现湖北省WEF系统协调可持续发展的重点。

Abstract: Water, energy and food are the basic materials to ensure human production and living. Revealing the coupling and coordination degree and evolution trend of the ‘water energy food’ (WEF) system in Hubei Province can provide a scientific basis for its resource allocation and sustainable development. By constructing an evaluation index system for the coupling and coordinated development of the WEF system in Hubei Province, the coupling and coordinated development status of the WEF system from 2002 to 2022 was quantitatively evaluated. The ARIMA model was used to predict the WEF system coupling and coordinated scheduling from 2025 to 2040. The results indicate that the comprehensive development evaluation index of Hubei WEF system showed an overall upward trend from 2002 to 2022, with the development index of water resources had the greatest impact on it; The WEF system is in a high-level coupling stage; The coupling and coordination relationship of WEF system shows a gradual upward trend; The prediction results of ARIMA model show that the coupling coordination degree of Hubei WEF system from 2025 to 2040 is in a highly coupled stage. The comprehensive development evaluation index of resources shows that the comprehensive development level of water resources in Hubei Province is still unstable, and affects the rate of coordinated development of the WEF system. Therefore, strengthening the protection of water resources and optimizing the structure of water use are the key points to realize the coordinated and sustainable development of the WEF system in Hubei Province.

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