Abstract: Provincial administrative units (abbreviated as provinces) are key entities for achieving carbon peak goals in China. It is of great significance to conduct multi-scenario predictions of the carbon peaking of provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), for supporting the formulation of regional carbon peak action plans and achieving green and integrated development. This paper constructed three-carbon emission scenarios: general carbon reduction (GE), strong carbon reduction (SE) and weak carbon reduction (WE). The carbon emission peaking and reduction potential of provinces in the YREB from 2021 to 2035 was investigated, based on regional historical carbon emission data and future reduction targets. The results indicated: (1) Under above three scenarios, the YREB would meet the 2030 peaking targets. An earlier peaking time and a lower peak level were shown in the SE scenarios. Compared to the GE scenario, the cumulative carbon reduction potential of the YREB ranged from -4 409.42 to 3 641.89 Mt. (2) In the GE scenario, except for Anhui, all provinces were expected to achieve the 2030 peaking targets. Among them, Chongqing and Sichuan would peak first in 2020 at 130 and 275.77 Mt. Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Yunnan were projected to peak in early 2025, with peak values of 168.74, 379.2 and 250.6 Mt, respectively. (3) Under the SE scenario, all provinces could peak before 2030. However, for the WE scenario, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, and Guizhou might struggle to peak before 2030. There was a need to strengthen the efforts to unearth carbon peaking and reduction potential in such provinces. (4) More vigorous emission reduction measures would be beneficial for provinces to achieve carbon peaking and high-quality carbon reduction targets. However, the interplay between different intensities of emission reduction targets and economic development should be paid attention to seek an optimal peaking pathway that might balance economic development and ecological benefits. Finally, suggestions were put forward on promoting regional collaborative emission reduction and developing carbon peak pathways based on local conditions.