长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (07): 1441-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202507004

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江中游城市群水生态空间格局演变特征及影响机制研究

薄立明1,尹力2,魏伟1,2,赵浪2,张轲3*   

  1. 1. 武汉大学中国发展战略与规划研究院,湖北 武汉 430072; 2.武汉大学城市设计学院,湖北 武汉 430072; 3.黄淮学院建筑工程学院,河南 驻马店 463000)
  • 出版日期:2025-07-20 发布日期:2025-07-23

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Mechanism of Aquatic Ecological Spatial Pattern of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

BO Li-ming1, YIN Li2, WEI Wei1,2, ZHAO Lang2, ZHANG Ke3   


  1. (1. China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; 2. School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; 3. Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian 463000, China)
  • Online:2025-07-20 Published:2025-07-23

摘要:  科学认知长江中游城市群水生态空间演变的时空分异特征及形成机制对于实现长江中游地区水生态空间的用途管制和引导水生态空间治理融入国土空间规划体系具有重要作用。面向现阶段国土空间规划空间用途管制需求构建水生态空间分类体系,采用空间转移矩阵、地形位分析从“规模-地形”两个维度刻画水生态空间时空演变特征,引入偏最小二乘结构方程模型定量解析2000~2020年长江中游城市群水生态空间格局形成机制。结果表明:(1)近20年长江中游城市群水生态空间流失规模高达1 614.26 km2,降幅7.63%,湖北、湖南剧烈减少的同时江西略有增加;“农业空间-水生态空间”的动态转换现象尤为显著,江汉平原、两湖平原的水生态空间转型最为剧烈;(2)从地形梯度来看,长江中游城市群水生态空间的流失和扩张位置主要发生在低地形位地区,整体有“上山爬坡”的地形梯度变化趋势;(3)利用偏最小二乘结构方程模型可在较小样本量和空间数据非正态分布的情况下对水生态空间与多元影响因素间的作用关系进行有效解析,水生态空间的演变过程与地貌基础、道路设施建设及农业生产开发等因素均具有直接、显著的作用,人口与社会发展、经济与产业扩张可通过道路与设施建设以及农业生产开发对水生态空间演变产生间接影响,气候与水文变化仅对水生态空间的扩张具有明显作用。研究可为国土空间规划背景下水生态空间格局-过程-机理的量化分析和长江中游城市群水生态空间用途管制提供理论支撑与数据参考。

Abstract: Understanding the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and formation mechanisms of space evolution of aquatic ecology in the urban agglomerations of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is crucial for implementing land use control and integrating aquatic ecological space governance into the territorial spatial planning system. This study constructed a classification system for aquatic ecological space, tailored to the current demands for spatial use regulation in territorial spatial planning. Using a spatial transfer matrix and topographic position analysis, the study delineated the spatiotemporal evolution of aquatic ecological space from the dual perspectives of "scale-topography." Additionally, a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) was introduced to quantitatively analyze the mechanisms underlying the aquatic ecological space patterns in the study area from 2000 to 2020. The results revealed that: 1) Over the past two decades, the aquatic ecological space had diminished by 1 614.26  km2, a decrease of 7.63%, with significant reductions in Hubei and Hunan provinces, and a slight increase in Jiangxi province. The dynamic conversion between "agricultural space and aquatic ecological space" was particularly pronounced, with the most intense transitions observed in the Jianghan and Two Lakes Plains; 2) From a topographic gradient perspective, the loss and expansion of aquatic ecological space predominantly occurred in low topographic regions, with an overall trend of shifting toward higher elevations; 3) The PLS-SEM effectively elucidated the relationships between aquatic ecological space and multiple influencing factors, even with small sample sizes and non-normally distributed spatial data. The evolution of aquatic ecological space was significantly influenced by geomorphological foundations, road infrastructure development, and agricultural production activities. Population growth, social development, and economic and industrial expansion exerted indirect impacts through road infrastructure and agricultural production, while climatic and hydrological changes had a notable effect solely on the expansion of aquatic ecological space. This study provided theoretical support and data references for the quantitative analysis of the pattern-process-mechanism of aquatic ecological space under the context of territorial spatial planning in the urban agglomerations of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

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