Abstract: In the context of the Yangtze River protection, the agricultural carbon emission reduction in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important support to achieve the goal of "dual carbon goals". By analyzing the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, a dynamic model of agricultural carbon emission system was established. A variety of scenarios were set up to simulate and predict the peak time, peak value and emission reduction effect of agricultural carbon emission intensity in the upper, middle and lower reaches. The results showed that: (1) Under the baseline scenario, the upper reaches are expected to reach the peak in 2032, and the middle reaches are expected to reach the peak in 2030. (2) The coordinated development scenario has the most significant effect on agricultural carbon emission reduction in all regions. The peak time of the upstream region, the middle region and the downstream region can be advanced to 2028, 2026 and 2025, respectively. Agricultural carbon emission intensity can be reduced by 13.84%、19.22%、15.83%, respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. (3) Under the single policy scenario, digital capital support has the best effect on agricultural carbon emission reduction in the upstream region, while environmental pollution control is the focus of agricultural carbon emission reduction in the middle region and the downstream region