长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (07): 1621-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202507018

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    

江苏省耕地碳代谢密度变化特征及其影响因素

张路1,陈禹杉1*,林学涵2   

  1. (1.华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430079;2.华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241)
  • 出版日期:2025-07-20 发布日期:2025-07-23

Characteristics of Changes in Carbon Metabolism Density of Cultivated Land and Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province

ZHANG Lu1, CHEN Yu-shan1, LIN Xue-han2   

  1. (1. School of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China; 2. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China)
  • Online:2025-07-20 Published:2025-07-23

摘要: 耕地碳代谢系统涉及大规模、高频次的碳收支,对于土地利用碳循环有深刻影响。在碳中和目标背景下,研究耕地碳代谢密度变化特征及影响因素,不仅有助于拓展耕地碳代谢研究,而且能为耕地可持续发展和土地碳减排提供科学依据。为此,以江苏省为例,在借鉴ENA的代谢密度分析的基础上,分析2000~2020年耕地碳代谢密度变化特征,并运用空间自相关和时空地理加权回归模型识别影响耕地碳代谢的主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)江苏省耕地碳代谢密度平均值3 336.06 t/km2,并且耕地碳代谢密度总体呈现上升趋势。(2)江苏省耕地碳代谢密度的空间分异明显,经济欠发达地区的耕地碳代谢密度较高,而经济发达地区较低。(3)江苏省耕地碳代谢密度在空间上呈显著的正相关,表现为低-低或高-高的空间集聚特征,随着时间的推移,正相关性逐渐增强。(4)江苏省耕地碳代谢密度变化受多因素影响,其中复种指数、年均降水整体具有正向影响,亩均化肥、财政支农水平具有负向影响,年均气温具有双向调控作用、正负交替影响。耕地碳代谢密度能够有效揭示耕地系统中碳循环的复杂性和动态性,直观刻画耕地利用方式和管理措施对碳输入和输出的动态调控作用;通过优化耕地管理策略,可以实现碳输入和输出之间的平衡,从而最大限度提高碳储存和减少碳排放,对于实现双碳目标具有重要意义。

Abstract: The carbon metabolism system of cultivated land involves a large-scale, high-frequency carbon budget, which profoundly impacts the land-use carbon cycle. In the context of carbon neutrality goals, studying the characteristics of change in carbon metabolism density of cultivated land and the corresponding influencing factors can help expand our understanding of carbon metabolism. This study may provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of cultivated land and land-use carbon reduction. Therefore, this study took Jiangsu Province as an example, and analyzed the characteristics of change in carbon metabolic density of cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. The metabolism density analysis from ENA was performed, and the primary drivers affecting carbon metabolism were identified. The spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression models were used in this study. Our research revealed the following key findings: (1) The average carbon metabolism density of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020 was 3336.06 t/km2, and the overall trend of carbon metabolism density of cultivated land showed a noticeable increase. (2) The spatial variation of carbon metabolism density was evident, with higher carbon metabolism density in economically underdeveloped areas and lower carbon metabolism density in economically developed areas. (3) The carbon metabolism density demonstrated a significant positive spatial correlation, characterized by spatial clustering of low-low or high-high values. This spatial positive correlation intensified over time. (4) Multiple factors influenced the change in the carbon metabolic density. The multiple cropping index and average annual precipitation had positive effects, while the average fertilizer use per mu and the level of fiscal support for agriculture had adverse effects. The average annual temperature exhibited a bidirectional regulatory effect, alternating between positive and negative influences. The carbon metabolism density effectively illuminated the complexity and dynamics of carbon cycles in cultivated land ecosystems, clearly illustrating how land use practices and management strategies dynamically modulated carbon inputs and outputs. Optimization of land management can effectively balance carbon inputs and outputs, which is crucial for achieving the dual carbon goals.

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