长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (08): 1662-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202508003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带水环境承载力与产业结构高级化适配评价研究

孔阳1,2,何伟军1,2,袁亮1,2,彭青玲3   

  1. (1.三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北 宜昌 443002;2.湖北省高校人文社科重点研究基地(流域综合治理与水经济发展研究中心),湖北 宜昌 443002;3.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100)
  • 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-09-01

An Adaptive Evaluation of Water Environmental Carrying Capacity and Advanced Industrial Structure in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

KONG Yang1,2,HE Wei-jun1,2,YUAN Liang1,2,PENG Qing-ling3   

  1. (1.College of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;2.Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences of Hubei Province-Research Center for Integrated Watershed Management & Water Economy Development, Yichang 443002, China;3.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)
  • Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-09-01

摘要: 当前我国水安全保障的主要矛盾已经由供给不足转变为环境承载过度,不少地区的水环境承载力正处于超载或临界超载状态,难以对社会经济发展提供可持续支撑,亟需探究水环境承载力约束下区域产业结构高级化发展策略。基于此,以长江经济带11省(市)为例,在辩证分析水环境承载力与产业结构高级化适配机理的基础上,分别构建模型研判该区域水环境承载力和产业发展存在的问题,然后构建水环境承载力与产业结构高级化二维脱钩适配模型,探究不同水环境承载力水平下的适配状态并开展区域划分,旨在为区域差异化“以水定产”政策制定提供重要指导。研究发现:(1)长江经济带11省(市)的水环境承载力水平普遍偏低且未呈现明显改善趋势,总体呈现“下游>中游>上游”的空间分布特征;水环境承载力省际差异明显且不存在显著的空间自相关关系;此外,四个子系统之间的耦合协调水平并未对长江经济带的水环境承载力形成制约,而生态环境用水率和产业结构是对该区域水环境承载力影响最大的两个因素。(2)长江经济带各省(市)的产业结构高级化水平基本呈现上升趋势,但产业结构升级效果并不显著;11省(市)的水环境承载力与产业结构高级化之间共呈现出6种二维脱钩适配状态,“高-适配”这一最理想状态并未实现。研究不仅丰富了“以水定产”研究的理论与方法,而且为区域差异化“以水定产”政策制定和水环境承载力分区调控提供了重要决策参考。

Abstract: The main contradiction of water security in China has changed from insufficient supply to excessive environmental carrying capacity.The water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) in many regions is in a state of overload or facing the risk of overload, to support sustainable social and economic development.It is an urgent task to explore the strategy of advanced development of regional industrial structure under the constraint of WECC.This study took 11 provincial regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as an example, and constructed models to investigate the existing problems of WECC and industrial development.The dialectical analysis of the adaptation mechanism of the two was used.A two-dimensional decoupling adaptation model of WECC and advanced industrial structure was constructed.This study aimed to provide important guidance for the formulation of regional differentiated "water-based production" policy.The findings were as follows: (1) The level of WECC in 11 provincial-level regions of the YREB was generally low and did not show a significant improving trend, with the overall spatial distribution characteristics of "downstream > midstream > upstream".The WECC of the YREB varied significantly among provinces and there was no significant spatial autocorrelation.The coupling coordination level among the four subsystems did not restrict the WECC of the YREB.Ecological water consumption rate and industrial structure were the two factors that had the greatest influence on the WECC.(2) The level of advanced industrial structure of provincial areas in the YREB basically showed an upward trend, but the effect of industrial structure upgrading was not significant.There were six two-dimensional decoupling adaptation states between the WECC and advanced industrial structure, and the optimal two-dimensional decoupling adaptation state of "high-adaptation" had not been realized.This study enriched the theory and method of "water-based production" research, and also provided an important decision-making reference for regional differentiated "water-based production" policy formulation and regional regulation of WECC.

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