Abstract: This paper aimed to explore the characteristics of land use change under multiple scenarios in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, and to grasp the resulting ecological and environmental effects. This study was expected to provide a scientific basis for the optimization of territorial space and ecological environmental construction in the reservoir area. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was used to predict the spatial pattern of land use in 2030 under scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, and ecological conservation. Additionally, methods such as the ecological environment quality index and ecological contribution rate were employed to analyze the ecological and environmental effects of land use changes in different periods. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, forest land was the dominant land use type, with a notable shift from farmland to forest land. The forest land area demonstrated the largest increase of 762.07 km2, accounting for 3.82% of the total area. (2) Under scenarios of natural development and ecological conservation in 2030, the farmland area would decrease while the forest land area would increase. In contrast, under the farmland protection scenario, the farmland area would increase, and the expansion of forest land was somewhat restricted. (3) From 2000 to 2030, the ecological environment quality index was as high as 0.61. The spatial distribution pattern of ecological environment quality remained basically stable. (4) From 2000 to 2030, the conversion of farmland to forest land played a dominant role in improving the ecological environment, accounting for more than 74% of the total contribution rate. Conversely, the conversion of forest land to farmland was the leading factor causing ecological environment degradation, which explained 53% of the total contribution rate. The overall ecological environment quality in the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area was high. The changes were mainly influenced by the conversion among farmland, grassland, and forest land. In the future, various land use indicators should be considered comprehensively in conjunction with the development goals of the reservoir area to achieve high-quality development.