长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (12): 2753-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202512011

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

武鄂黄黄都市圈土地利用结构优化:碳氧平衡视角下的多情景模拟

张祚,吕雅茹,刘晓歌*,宋湘湘   

  1. (华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北 武汉430079)
  • 出版日期:2025-12-20 发布日期:2025-12-25

Optimization of Land Use Structure in Wuhan-Ezhou-Huanggang-Huangshi Metropolitan Area: A Multi-scenario Simulation under the Perspective of Carbon-oxygen Balance

ZHANG Zuo, LYU Ya-ru, LIU Xiao-ge, SONG Xiang-xiang   

  1. (School of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Online:2025-12-20 Published:2025-12-25

摘要: 探讨面向碳氧平衡的都市圈土地利用结构优化,对于提升区域生态系统服务功能和实现可持续发展具有重要意义。基于“生态状况评估—用地需求预测—多情景模拟”的多目标优化框架,以2020年为现状年且2030年为目标年,采用碳氧平衡法、ARIMA模型和NSGA-II算法,评估了武鄂黄黄都市圈土地利用的碳氧平衡状况,剖析了多情景的土地利用结构优化方案。结果表明:(1)2010~2020年都市圈释碳量增长31.8%,耗氧量增长27.34%,生态系统压力加剧;同期生态用地的固碳释氧能力持续减弱,耕地和林地分别下降4.18%和3.64%。(2)土地利用弹性分析显示,建设用地和耕地调整空间较大,湿地和未利用地则受限;林地、未利用地、耕地和草地对不确定性变化的敏感度约为0.6,而建设用地、水域和湿地约为0.2,应优先保障高敏感地类的合理配置,增强系统适应性。(3)多情景优化表明,生态—经济均衡的优化情景通过适度增加建设用地和林地面积,提升生态效益1.6%、经济效益19.3%,适用于稳健发展区域;生态优先的优化情景以湿地和草地保护为核心,提高林地面积6.6%,实现生态效益增长3.1%但经济效益下降3.5%,适用于生态敏感区;经济优先的优化情景以建设用地扩张为主导,经济效益提升38.3%但生态效益下降1.6%,适用于工业化区域。总体而言,建议将生态承载力作为都市圈土地利用优化的重要约束条件,分类引导、差异调控,构建兼顾生态安全与发展效益的空间治理体系。

Abstract: Optimizing land use structures in metropolitan areas from a carbon-oxygen balance perspective is critical for enhancing ecosystem services and advancing sustainable development.This study constructed a multi-objective optimization framework that integrated ecological status assessment, land demand forecasting, and multi-scenario simulation.The carbon-oxygen balance method, ARIMA model, and NSGA-II algorithm were adopted.Taking 2020 as the base year and 2030 as the target year, the carbon-oxygen balance of land use and multi-scenario land-use optimization plans in Wuhan-Ezhou-Huanggang-Huangshi (WEHH) metropolitan area were evaluated and analyzed.The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the carbon emissions in WEHH increased by 31.8%, and oxygen consumption by 27.34%, which indicated a significant increase of pressure for the ecosystem.Meanwhile, a notable decrease was identified in the carbon fixation and oxygen release capacity of the ecological land.The decrease for the cultivated land and forest land was at a rate of4.18% and 3.64%, respectively.(2) Elasticity analysis revealed that there existed a greater adjustment potential for the construction and cultivated land, while the wetlands and the unused land should remain restricted.The forest land, unused land, cultivated land, and grassland exhibited a high sensitivity (≈0.6) to uncertainty, which implied a need for prioritized and adaptive allocation.(3) Multi-scenario optimization highlighted trade-offs across development pathways.The scenario 1 of ecological-economic balance might moderately expand the construction and forest land, and improve ecological benefits by 1.6% and economic output by 19.3%.Scenario 2 of prioritizing ecological integrity by an increase of forest land of 6.6% and an enhancement of wetland and grassland protection might achieve an ecological benefit of 3.1% at a cost of 3.5% decline in economic performance.This scenario was appropriate for ecologically sensitive areas.Scenario 3 that emphasized economic growth through a 33.8% expansion of construction land, might boost economic benefit by 38.3%, but might reduce ecological benefits by 1.6%.Scenario 3 was more applicable to highly industrialized areas.Overall, it was essential to incorporate ecological carrying capacity as a core constraint, and to adopt differentiated, goal-oriented land governance strategies, for guiding sustainable land use transitions in metropolitan areas.

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