长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (12): 2816-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202512016

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

南水北调中线工程受水区农业面源污染时空分布及驱动因素研究

吴梦   

  1. (南阳师范学院经济与管理学院,河南 南阳 473061)
  • 出版日期:2025-12-20 发布日期:2025-12-25

Study on Spatial-temporal Distribution and Driving Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in Water-receiving Area of Central Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project#br#

WU Meng    

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang 473061, China)
  • Online:2025-12-20 Published:2025-12-25

摘要: 控制农业面源污染、改善水环境质量有助于推动农业生产方式绿色转型、实现经济高质量发展。采用单元调查法及等标污染负荷法,核算2009~2021年南水北调中线工程20个受水城市的农业面源污染排放量,分析其时空分布特征,利用LMDI模型考察其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)从实物排放量来看,由于禽畜养殖污染源得以有效控制,受水区农业面源污染在研究期内下降了23.00%,主要表现为TN、COD排放量的不断降低。(2)从等标排放量来看,研究期内受水区农业面源污染下降了8.02%,其中,化肥污染源是重点污染源,平均占比达到82.68%;而TP是重点污染物,平均占比为69.01%。同时,受水区农业面源污染排放总差异呈现不断扩大的态势,地区内差异特别是河南省各受水城市的差异是导致受水区农业面源污染不平衡的主要源泉。(3)经济发展水平、产业结构效应对受水区农业面源污染有正向驱动作用,农业经济效益、非城镇化水平则表现为负向驱动作用,污染强度效应对农业面源污染的影响由正向驱动转为负向驱动,而资源禀赋的驱动作用表现出较大的波动性。各受水城市要加强农业面源污染防治,推动南水北调中线工程高质量发展。

Abstract: Controlling agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) and improving water environment quality can promote the green transformation of agricultural production mode and achieve high-quality economic development.This paper used the unit survey method and equivalent standard pollution load method to calculate the ANPSP emissions of 20 water-receiving cities in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project's Central Route from 2009 to 2021.The spatial- temporal distribution characteristics was analyzed.The driving factors were investigated using the LMDI model.The results showed that: (1) The ANPSP in water-receiving areas decreased by 23%, due to the effective control of livestock breeding pollution of TN and COD emissions.(2)The ANPSP decreased by 8.02%, and the fertilizer pollution attributed to 82.68%; TP was the key pollutant, with an average proportion of 69.01%.The difference of emission of ANPSP showed an expanding trend.The difference among the water-receiving cities in Henan Province was the main source leading to the imbalance of ANPSP .(3) Economic development level and industrial structure effect had a positive effect on ANPSP , while agricultural economic efficiency and non-urbanization showed a negative effect.The effect of pollution intensity on ANPSP changed from positive to negative, and the driving effect of resource endowment showed a large fluctuation.The water-receiving cities should strengthen the prevention and control of ANPSP to promote the high-quality development of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project's Central Route.

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