三峡库区21世纪气候变化的情景预估分析

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2010, Vol. 19 >> Issue (01): 42-.

三峡库区21世纪气候变化的情景预估分析

刘晓冉^1|2| 杨茜³| 程炳岩¹| 张天宇¹

（1.重庆市气候中心| 重庆 401147； 2.中国科学院大气物理研究所| 北京 100029； 3.重庆市人工影响天气办公室| 重庆 401147）

出版日期:2010-01-20

SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF 21ST CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE THREE GORGES AREA

LIU Xiaoran^1|2| YANG Qian³| CHENG Bingyan¹| ZHANG Tianyu¹

(1.Chongqing Climate Center| Chongqing 401147| China； 2.Institute of Atmospheric Physics| Chinese Academy of Sciences| Beijing 100029| China； 3.The Weather Modification Office of Chongqing| Chongqing 401147| China)

Online:2010-01-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告提供的新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果（IPCCAR4），通过多模式集合方法预估分析了3种排放情景(高排放SRES A2、中等排放SRES A1B和低排放SRES B1)下三峡库区21世纪气候的可能变化。结果表明，挑选模拟性能较好的模式进行的多模式集合对库区气温和降水的变化具有较好的模拟能力，21世纪库区气候总体有显著变暖、变湿的趋势，年平均气温变暖趋势为2.1~4.2℃/100 a，年降水增加趋势为6.1%~9.7%/100 a。就季节变化而言，冬季的变暖幅度最大，降水增加幅度最大。库区年平均气温在21世纪将持续呈上升趋势，而年降水在21世纪前期有减少趋势，在中期和后期逐渐增多。在A2、A1B和B1排放情景，21世纪后期气温分别比常年偏暖3.7、3.3和2.2℃，年降水分别比常年偏多4.4%、5.5%和3.5%。

关键词: IPCC-AR4/ 多模式集合/ 气候变化/ 三峡库区

Abstract:

Using the outputs simulated by GCM models provided by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCCAR4)，the situation of climate change in the Three Gorges area in the future 100 years under SRES A2，A1B and B1 greenhouse gas was analyzed by the method of Multimodel Ensembles.The results show that the Multimodel Ensembles carried out using a suite of wellperforming models can well simulate the change of temperature and precipitation in the Three Gorges area.The climate in the Three Gorges area shows a warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century.The range of linear tendency of temperature changes is 2.1~4.2℃/100 a，and precipitation is 6.10%~9.70%/100 a.The largest range of warming is in winter，while the largest increase of precipitation is also in winter.The annual temperature will increase constantly in the 21st century.The annual precipitation will decrease in the early stage of 21st century，and increase in middle and late stage of 21st century.Considering the effect of SRES A2，A1B and B1，the temperature in the Three Gorges area would be increased by 3.7，3.3 and 2.2℃ respectively，and the precipitation would be increased by 4.4%，5.5% and 3.5% respectively at the end of 21st century.

Key words: IPCC-AR4/ Multimodel Ensembles/ climate change/ the Three Gorges area

刘晓冉, 杨茜, 程炳岩, 张天宇. 三峡库区21世纪气候变化的情景预估分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(01): 42-.

LIU Xiao-Dan, Yang-Qian, Cheng-Bing-Yan, Zhang-Tian-Yu. SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF 21ST CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE THREE GORGES AREA[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2010, 19(01): 42-.

参考文献

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed