基于Copula模型的丰枯频率分析——以南水北调西线工程调水区径流与黄河上游来水的丰枯遭遇研究为例

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2010, Vol. 19 >> Issue (7): 759-.

基于Copula模型的丰枯频率分析——以南水北调西线工程调水区径流与黄河上游来水的丰枯遭遇研究为例

丁志宏^1,2|冯平¹|张永³

（1.天津大学建筑工程学院|天津 300072；2.黄河水利科学研究院水资源研究所|河南郑州 450003；
3.水利部水利水电规划设计总院|北京 100011）

出版日期:2010-07-20

RICHPOOR FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF RUNOFF BASED ON COPULA MODEL——A CASE STUDY ON ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY OF RICHPOORRUNOFF BETWEEN RIVERS
IN AREA OF WESTERN ROUTE OF SOUTHTO NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT
AND THAT OF THEUPPER REACH OF THE YELLOW RIVER

DING Zhihong1,2;FENG Ping1;ZHANG Yong3

(1.School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.Department of Water Resources Research,Yellow River Hydraulic Research Institute,
Zhengzhou 450003,China;3.General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design,Beijing 100011,China)

Online:2010-07-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以道孚、绰斯甲、足木足和兰州水文站1960～2000年的同步天然年径流量系列为基础，应用Copula方法构造了南水北调西线一期工程调水区径流与黄河上游来水之间的联合分布，具体分析了调水区径流与黄河上游来水的丰枯遭遇频率。结果表明：由西向东依次按鲜水河、绰斯甲河、足木足河的顺序，调水河流与黄河上游丰枯同步（异步）的频率在递增（递减），到了足木足河，其丰枯同步的频率已大于丰枯异步的频率；有利于调水到黄河的频率在递减，但仍保持在30％以上，略大于南水北调中线工程的利于调水频率；且调水区径流与黄河上游来水同枯的频率维持在26％以下，这些对于南水北调西线一期工程的实施都是有利的。

Abstract:

Based on the synchronous natural annual runoff time series from 1960 to 2000 year at Daofu,Chuosijia,Zumuzu and Lanzhou hydrological stations,Copula method was applied to construct the runoff joint distribution between the rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project and the upper reach of the Yellow River,and the synchronousasynchronous encounter probabilities of richpoor runoff between them were thoroughly analyzed.The results show that with the order as Xianshui River,Chuosijia River,Zumuzu River from west to east,the synchronous(asynchronous)encounter probabilities of richpoor runoff between the rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project and the upper reach of the Yellow River augment(decrease)orderly and the synchronous probability between Zumuzu River and the upper reach of the Yellow River has been greater than the asynchronous probability between them;The probabilities that are propitious to transfer water resources to the Yellow River decrease orderly,but they all greater than 30% and they are a little greater than the corresponding probabilities in the Middle Route of South to North Water Transfer Project;the synchronous poor probabilities between the two areas are all bellow 26%,and all of these results are propitious to carry through construction of the First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project.

丁志宏, 冯平, 张永. 基于Copula模型的丰枯频率分析——以南水北调西线工程调水区径流与黄河上游来水的丰枯遭遇研究为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(7): 759-.

DING Zhi-Hong, FENG Beng, ZHANG Yong. RICHPOOR FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF RUNOFF BASED ON COPULA MODEL——A CASE STUDY ON ENCOUNTER PROBABILITY OF RICHPOORRUNOFF BETWEEN RIVERS
IN AREA OF WESTERN ROUTE OF SOUTHTO NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT
AND THAT OF THEUPPER REACH OF THE YELLOW RIVER[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2010, 19(7): 759-.

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